Lineups and Postseason Success

The Chicago Cubs have played some of their best baseball of the season over the last two weeks, and with only 10 games left before the postseason, there may not have not been a better time.

During these final two weeks before the playoffs come, it may be a good time to figure out what lineup gives them the best chance to win in the postseason.

Joe Maddon is known for tinkering with his lineups and maneuvering players around, but history has shown that in the playoffs, teams that make minimal lineup adjustments usually win.

If you look back at the last ten World Series Champions, each of them had an everyday lead-off hitter regardless of the matchup. The one exception being the 2007 Boston Red Sox who lead off with both Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury in their sweep of the Colorado Rockies in the World Series.

While those lineups had some small variations based on the individual matchup of that game’s starting pitcher and some players moved spots in the order, the lineups themselves also didn’t change much.

However, the Cubs will not have those luxuries this postseason. The issue of the Cubs’ lead-off situation has been discussed ad nauseam and despite the lack of internal options, they’ll have to make do with what they have.

All managers create lineups based on certain matchups, this season Maddon has had to do it more than most, especially due to the lack of a lead-off hitter and basically platooning his entire outfield. For a team that is based on matchups, it will be interesting to see how that affects them this postseason.

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras are penciled in as the 2-3-4 hitters and with Javier Baez and Addison Russell playing up the middle up the middle, that leaves Albert Almora Jr., Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist fighting for the three outfield spots.

So who should play come October 6?

While I’ve written before that I don’t love the idea of having Zobrist starting down the stretch, let alone in the postseason, he may also be their worst option of the five vying for spots in the lineup. He’s hitting just .230 in September with a .642 OPS. Despite his minimal offensive output, I have a hard time believing that Maddon doesn’t find a way to get him in the lineup. Happ provides a bit more offensive upside than Zobrist at this point, but is probably one of the odd men out.

Schwarber has bounced back following his demotion to Triple-A Iowa in June and while his overall numbers will be ones to forget, the numbers since his return July 6 have been closer to normal. He’s hitting .252 with 17 homers and 26 RBI since his return and owns a .901 OPS during that span.

Heyward is the best defensive option and while you never know what you will get from him offensively, the value of his glove on the defensive side will get him into the lineup.

Perhaps the hottest hitter of the group right now has been Almora Jr. Maddon has limited Almora’s action to be primarily against left handed pitching, but he has earned more playing time down the stretch including playing against right handers. Almora has done more than held his own against right handed pitching as well, hitting .271 this season against righties and has a robust 1.029 OPS in the month of September. Maddon’s trust in Almora has grown significantly in the last few months, but will it be enough for Almora to crack the lineup in the NLDS? It should.

Maddon is going to have to trust one of his young players this postseason. Whether that’s letting Almora start against righties, starting Happ or even letting Schwarber hit against left-handed pitching, these are all options to consider. The bottom line is that you don’t win in October if you can’t score runs and whatever combination helps the Cubs do that should be out there.

Listed below are four different lineups-two against a RHP and two against a LHP. Two of those lineups are who I believe Maddon will start when the playoffs come around based on recent history and Maddon’s trust in those players based on that matchup. The other two lineups are who I believe should be in the lineup based on those same matchups. Enjoy!

Lead photo courtesy Charles LeClaire—USA Today Sports