Hammer Time’s Not So Bad

Watching major sporting events with my wife is great fun. Whether it’s the Super Bowl or the World Series, it always ends the same way. When the cameras inevitably pan to the losers, she gets visibly upset and says something like, “Awww, poor guys. That’s so sad that they had to lose.”

And then I chime in with some sarcastic comment that’s meant to be funny (my hit rate is about 50%l percent), she rolls her eyes, and then she turns back to the TV with honest-to-goodness sadness in her eyes.

It’s a weird phrase: “had to lose.” But that’s pro sports, and people like myself have become inured to the whole losing experience—at the end of the day, one team wins and another loses. That’s baseball—someone has to lose.

Then there are the smaller battles that players are fighting on a daily basis: with their competition, with themselves, with their front office, etc. And that brings me to one particular player that’s making me feel sad, like my wife.

Poor Jason Hammel.

Here’s a veteran guy, 33 years old, really coming into his own since joining the Cubs. And yet anytime his name comes up, the conversation will inevitably lead to his second-half struggles. Ryan Davis recently tackled the issue right here on this very site.

Unfortunately for Hammel, his second-half issues aren’t the only disses thrown his way.

There’s also his status on the team come playoff time. With Kyle Hendricks continuing to dominate the opposition (he’s currently got the third-best ERA in the National League behind only Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner), there’s already been talk that Hammel’s role come playoff time is going to be that of emergency/long relief. In other words, if a starter gets into early trouble, Hammel would come in to pitch so the bullpen doesn’t have to cover a large swath of a game. But he would not start a game.

And that’s assuming he even makes the team. There’s a very real possibility he’s watching the playoffs from the bench.

What’s crazy is that Hammel himself has the 17th-best ERA in the NL, and it’s John Lackey who currently carries the highest ERA of the rotation. Let’s put Hammel’s work into context:

That starting rotation is pretty ridiculous—but you already knew that. And that’s part of the reason Hammel gets this much scrutiny—depending on how heavily you like to lean on FIP when looking at a pitcher’s performance, he’s been the least effective starter on the team. What fans forget is Hammel’s numbers are those of a pretty good number-4 guy and an OK number 3.

Friendly reminder: Hammel is currently the fifth starter on this team.

Poor Hammel.

Now let’s use split stats for good instead of evil to show you how good he’s been for the Chicago Cubs. When you break down his career numbers and put them next to his numbers as a Cub, it’s pretty clear he’s experienced a breakthrough since donning the blue and white.

He’s pitched significantly better than he ever has in the past (save for 2012, maybe), and yet all we seem to talk about are the negatives. We should be focusing more on how this front office saw a pitcher that had shown one very good season of starting pitching and managed to grab him and get him to perform at a higher level than he ever had before, second halves be damned.

I’d also like to remind everyone that Hammel was part of one of those oft-discussed, rarely-consummated deals where a soon-to-be free agent is traded away only to re-sign the following off season. When the Cubs traded him and Jeff Samardzija to Oakland in 2014, there were whispers that he’d be willing to come back to the North Side. Lo and behold, he did, and I assume that Hammel and the team had a pretty good relationship in order for that to happen. I remember thinking to myself, “That Hammel must be a good dude to come back to the team that traded him away. He must really enjoy playing for the Cubs.”

I’m not here to say Hammel is a great pitcher that should be given the ball in the playoffs. There are other peripherals we could point to that show Hammel has been just OK. His FIP is one, and the difference between his FIP and his ERA (+1.02) is another. He’s sporting a 4.35 DRA this season while enjoying a sweet .245 BABIP from opposing hitters.

I’m just saying that it would be nice to mix in some praise each time we talk about those dang second-half splits.

Of course, there are reasons not to feel sorry for Hammel: he’s playing baseball for a living and has already collected over $40 million over his career. He’s on a first-place team that’s headed for the post-season (again) and is considered a favorite to make it all the way to the end. In other words, he’s got a front-row ticket for what might be one of the greatest shows in baseball… ever (sorry to be vague, but I don’t want to jinx anything).

Hammer himself probably has the best outlook on his situation. He’s “Trying not to look too far ahead, but I’m excited about what’s to come.”

I’m excited too, I just hope Hammel gets a little more props during the rest of his tenure as a Cub—he’s earned it.

Lead photo courtesy Jeff Hanisch—USA Today Sports.