Top Play (WPA): This game felt like it was over early, with Jason Hammel struggling to get through even the 3 2/3 he did complete and the offense’s ineptitude versus peak Gerrit Cole. The Cubs would eventually relinquish the ballgame late, another episode in the team’s recent reliever struggles. Despite this, the afternoon’s top play was the one that plated the tying run for the Cubs.
Following a key Tommy La Stella double, the Cubs were threatening with runners on second and third, the top of the order up, and Joakim Soria toeing the rubber. Soria slung a wild pitch to Dexter Fowler, allowing Castro to score and La Stella to move up a bag (+.080), after which Fowler worked a walk. Soria managed to skip another pitch with Kyle Schwarber at the plate, making its way to the backstop, with La Stella crossing the plate and tying the game at four (+.184).
Bottom Play (WPA): Sandwiched in between La Stella’s double and Soria’s two wild pitches, Addison Russell hit a sharp liner to the shortstop Jordy Mercer, a hiccup in an otherwise satisfying inning (-.113).
While the Cubs’ bullpen has been incredibly shaky recently, it’s worth noting that the Pirates do not have a mistake-proof ‘pen either. Although he had performed well in 18 previous innings with the Pirates since he came over from Detroit, Soria has allowed a career-high eight home runs this season. With the likelihood of a Cubs-Pirates Wild Card face off, the struggles of each club’s relievers is of paramount importance. Which brings us to…
Key Moment: … Our key moment. As I mentioned, Cole stymied the Cubs’ bats most of the game. Kris Bryant, in particular, looked lost against the flame-throwing righty, striking out three times on a mere 12 pitches, very uncharacteristic of the slugger. The Cubs’ impotence versus Cole appeared to be the story of the game, with eight strikeouts and no walks, but they were somehow able to push him to the 100 pitch mark in the seventh.
Following one-out singles from Miguel Montero and Starlin Castro, Joe Maddon tapped his best left-handed pinch-hitter to face Cole. Tommy La Stella watched two Cole pitches before lining one down the left field line, just inside the chalk. He ended up on second with a double, Castro on third, and Montero crossed the plate to bring the score to 4-2, marking the game’s third-highest leverage play by WPA (+.165). More importantly, it forced Pirates skipper Clint Hurdle to delve into his bullpen, no longer confident that Cole could escape the jam with the top of the order due up for the fourth time.
La Stella’s line as a Cub is hardly impressive, at .162/.244/.297, but he’ll be a key piece of the Cubs’ bench the next few weeks and in the Wild Card game, providing a left-handed bat to complement the righty-heavy middle infield and bench options. He’s a patient contact hitter who provides a good alternative to Javier Baez’s swing-and-miss tendencies and Starlin Castro’s all-contact approach.
Trend to Watch: It’s the ‘pen, folks. Unfortunately, Maddon’s palate of reliable relievers keeps dwindling, a harrowing sign with the playoffs right around the corner.
In this game, it was Justin Grimm who garnered the ire of Cubs Twitter, although it was generally undeserved. An inauspicious leadoff walk to Pedro Alvarez, summarily replaced on first by Pedro Florimon, proved semi-disastrous. Florimon attempted a steal of second and Montero bounced a throw into center, Florimon finding himself on third and in position to score on Starling Marte’s pinch-hit sacrifice fly. In a game that turned on a few miscues, the Cubs could not recover from this one.
After winning the confidence of Maddon and finding himself in higher leverage situations, Grimm has scuffled since the end of August. Since August 25th, Grimm has walked 18.4 percent of hitters, paired with an 18.4 percent strikeout percentage, much worse marks than his 10 percent and 27.5 percent marks from 2014 and 2015 combined, respectively.
I find Grimm a fascinating pitcher, and his success—or lack thereof—is going to be a key factor in the Cubs’ postseason run, so let’s dig deeper. The first thing that stands out is the complete abandonment of his slider, a trend I first noted at the begin of August. According to Brooks, he’s thrown zero pitches classified as sliders this month in six appearances.
This wouldn’t be a problem, and he’s had success with that approach this season, but one look at where his pitches have ended up this month shows us why hitters have been knocking him around a bit.
Over nine percent of his total pitches this month have ended up right down the pipe. Unless you’re Aroldis Chapman, major-league hitters are going to feast on that.
This trend is disheartening not only because Grimm has been a reliable option for Maddon this season, but also because others have failed to take up his mantle as middle relief ace. Pedro Strop can’t get the Cardinals out, Jason Motte is probably out for the season, the Fernando Rodney experiment is still in its infancy, and Tommy Hunter clearly does not have the same purchase in Joe Maddon’s eyes.
Stuff-wise, I think that Rodney and Carl Edwards, Jr., have the biggest opportunities to gain larger roles in the bullpen. Rodney has flashed a prime changeup, and Edwards has significant upside, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them more in close games like this one as October bears down.
Coming Next: The night cap! The Cubs look to rebound after dropping the first game of the split doubleheader, with Jon Lester (3.50 ERA/3.90 DRA/85 cFIP) facing off against J.A. Happ (3.87/4.29/95). The left-killing version of the lineup features Austin Jackson in left, Bryant in right, and Javier Baez at third. The Cubs miss Francisco Liriano this series, but expect them to run out a version of this lineup if they face him in next week’s series at Wrigley (or in the divisional round, should either club leapfrog the Cardinals). Every plate appearance against these Pirates pitchers is a point of reference to be used later, so hopefully the bats will wake up and tag Happ for a crooked number.
Lead photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports