At any given point, there are a number of teams going through rebuilding periods; in fact, it happens quite often. That’s simply how the game works: sometimes you’re rebuilding, sometimes you’re contending. But with their rebuilding phase currently in full effect, no team currently presents as stark a contrast to the rest of their division as the Cincinnati Reds do.
Sure, rebuilding is a grueling phase for any team and its fans. But when you’re a team that won just 64 games in 2015 and find in a division whose 97-win team was only good for 3rd place last year, you may begin to feel as though the Baseball Gods are sprinkling salt on your wounds. So it’s certainly not pessimistic to think that the Reds could be a 100-loss team in 2016. That said, though, there’s reason for hope. As Alfred Pennyworth said to Bruce Wayne in The Dark Knight, “Things were always going to get worse before they got better.”
Last Season’s Record
64-98, 5th Place in NL Central
The highest note in the 2015 season for Cincinnati, without a doubt, had nothing to do with the standings. It came when they hosted the 2015 All-Star Game festivities and watched their now ex-home run king win the Home Run Derby in dramatic fashion, giving them something to stand up and cheer for outside of Joey Votto’s 26 dingers. (and if we want to throw in a “well, actually” moment here, Votto may have even suppressed his own totals by attempting to hit solely to his pull side early in the season, more on that in the link).
The injury bug surely didn’t cause the Reds’ inevitable demise in 2015, but to say it didn’t contribute to it would be silly, too. After a breakout season in which he hit a career record 25 home runs, the Reds lost backstop Devin Mesoraco after just 51 plate appearances at the end of May, followed by shortstop Zack Cozart just three weeks later. These were two major losses for a team whose outlook was already quite poor before the All-Star Break. Lord have mercy!
The Reds’ rotation luck went down a dark path as well when the team lost home-grown mid-rotation arm Homer Bailey to Tommy John surgery, plaguing them with yet another season in which they were unable to see Bailey yield his full potential on the mound. Then a mid-season trade of ace Johnny Cueto pulled the metaphorical “rebuild fire alarm” for the team, and after the All-Star break Bryan Price and Co. doled out a crop of young pitchers whose arms were fresher than the stitching on their jerseys for the remainder of the season.
Though it had virtually nothing to do with the standings, here’s another thing: manager Bryan Price would get himself was thrown out of a game against the Cleveland Indians before it even started, and dropped 77 F-bombs on the media for leaking team injury information. Even setting aside the obvious and basic misunderstanding of the role of the press here, the rant was embarrassing because it’s not as if the Reds were going anywhere fast before the leaked info. All that, along with the bad omen of one of the smokestacks at Great American Ballpark catching on fire, came within a one month period before June even hit.
Key Losses/Additions
The Johnny Cueto deal seemed to be the first in a line of falling dominos for the Reds. After the Cueto trade, it wasn’t long before we saw famed closer Aroldis Chapman and Reds home run leader Todd Frazier dealt away in efforts to beef up the club’s minor league system. When adding in the loss of pitcher Mike Leake to free agency this past offseason, the Reds lost something in the realm of 13.1 wins in player WARP since last July. However, these are the wounds you must endure when rebuilding. They still have Joey Votto—more on that later.
The Reds gained a flurry of interesting minor league talent in return for these major leaguers, most notably Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed, and Jose Peraza. Finnegan will finally get his shot to work as a starter in Cincinnati, as opposed to his time in which the postseason-contending Kansas City Royals bounced him around between the minor and major league rosters and never quite felt comfortable giving him the innings he needed as a starter while in a playoff race. For both Finnegan and Cincinnati, this could be the best situation. Finnegan will get the time he needs to answer the “Can he be a major league starter?” question while the Reds will try to stretch the answer into a hard “Yes, and for quite a bit of time.” Finnegan is exactly the type of young arm the Reds will need when going into their window of contention. Now is the time for them to smooth out his rough edges.
That said, many feel left-handed starter Cody Reed will end up being a dark horse in the Cueto trade. At 6’5″, 220 lbs and just 23 years old, Reed shows the frame of a durable future major league starter. Reed brings a mid-90s fastball, a decent-to-plus slider, and an improving changeup to the organization. Reed cleaned up his mechanics in 2015, and has shown ability to repeat his delivery. Reed was recently cut from Reds camp and will begin his season in the minors, where he will work to be a prospect that bolsters this Reds team’s starting rotation in the near future.
And finally, Jose Peraza symbolizes many things. Those things include consistency, plate discipline, a good hit tool, youth, and most importantly that—if Reds are truly on board with the rebuilding process—the time to trade Brandon Phillips is now. (They’ve tried to, but Phillips won’t revoke his no-trade rights.) Phillips seems to still be in the prime of his career, posting a slash line of .294/.328/.395 last season, but at age 35, that prime is due to come to an end before the Reds are ready for their rebuilding process to do the same. Peraza would be more than a viable option to take up Phillips’ mantle at second base, a defensive move from short that Peraza was already willing and able to make in Atlanta, and he would be an effective step towards the Reds’ better future.
If It All Goes Right
If it all goes right, the Reds won’t suffer any major injury setbacks as they did last season, they will trade players like Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips while stashing prospects for a later time, and they’ll find a way to keep fans entertained through what looks likely to be a long season. If the Reds are smart, they’ll try and keep the crew together with Homer Bailey, Devin Mesorcao, and Zack Cosart all set to be back on the field before the All-Star Break, and hold off on trading power bats such as Philips and Bruce until then. This, in theory, would help them scrape up a few extra wins while the gang is all still together in the hopes of giving fans more to come out and watch than simply Joey Votto. But that’s just a thought. With this Reds team there isn’t a lot of room for fluidity in what can go “right” on the field—I’m just trying to entertain a potentially smart and beneficial scenario.
If It All Goes Wrong
If all goes wrong? Well, not much can get worse for a team that lost 98 games just a season ago. Losing 100 games? That’s a possibility that Reds fans should be fully prepared to endure. Probably the worst thing that could happen would be a Joey Votto injury. In addition, there’s been a bit of speculation (including in a BP Annual Essay) about the pros and cons of trading a player like Votto. Despite the obvious difficulty of moving his large contract, it seems initially like it would be a no-brainer for the Reds to make a trade. The prospect return would likely be steep, and seeing as Votto is entering his age-33 season it seems unlikely that Votto will be able to continue his current production during the Reds’ future window of contention when he is say, 35 or 36. Any sort of severe injury to Votto at his age would all but close the door on the discussion of trading him, if the Reds are even having such a discussion anymore.
But let’s say that the Reds are willing to stand pat on Votto. Russell Carleton did some “Gory Math” on the pros of the Reds retaining Votto and how it would benefit them down the road. It’s best if you purchase the annual to support this wonderful publication and all of its authors in order to read the essay yourself and dig deeper into those gory details, but I’ll give you the bottom line right now: at his age, relative to his performance, based on players with comparable stats and careers, Votto has a 70 percent chance of remaining a better-than-average player by the year 2018—probably the earliest reasonable time we could expect the Reds to start competing in the NL Central again. The news gets even better for the Reds, though. Should Votto age gracefully, his chances of remaining an All-Star caliber player in 2018 are a little better than two-thirds. I’ll take those odds, but an injury would damage them and the Reds’ longterm outlook.
Notable PECOTA Projections
PECOTA projects banner years for both Mr. Votto himself and Billy Hamilton. PECOTA has Hamilton pegged for 90 runs in 2016, which would be unprecedented for the speedster who has only posted 56 runs in 2015 and 72 in 2014. PECOTA also has Hamilton with the most swiped bases in 2016 at 67, a large lead over Dee Gordon, who is number two on the list at 56. Hamilton has never stolen more than 57 bases in his career, but if he can reach the run totals PECOTA has projected for him, he will have more opportunities to use his wheels on the base paths, potentially making these projections a reality.
As for Votto, PECOTA sees him with the highest OBP in the majors for 2016, coming in at .421. Not exactly a surprise in some senses, seeing as he was just one percentage point behind Bryce Harper for a first place finish in 2015. PECOTA also has Votto number three in first base WARP. None of this, of course, is really surprising when you look at his long history of production.
Final Thoughts
It’s going to be a rough ride for the Reds—that’s one thing we can guarantee. Playing in the toughest division in baseball won’t exactly serve to soothe their wounds either. But if all goes well, the Reds will make progress in ways that may not affect the standings or their win totals in 2016—this progress may even hurt them in 2016—but it will help secure a promising future down the road. Play your cards right, Walt Jocketty, because it was just a few years ago your organization was taking the NL Central by storm. It’s bound to happen again.
Lead photo courtesy Matt Kartozian—USA Today Sports.