Top Play (WPA): You would think that because Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke had such a rough Opening Day, allowing seven earned runs in four innings, there would be reason to worry that he’d come out dealing against the Cubs. But that wasn’t the case, and they jumped all over him in the first inning.
Jason Heyward hit a one-out single, followed by a single by Ben Zobrist—who would reach base four times in five plate appearances on the night—and an RBI single by Anthony Rizzo. That brought up the struggling Kris Bryant, who entered the game just 3-for-17 so far this year. But he drove a double to center field, bringing Zobrist across the plate and scoring the Cubs second run of the inning (+0.096). Miguel Montero would add a sac fly before Greinke would finally get out of the first inning, but by then the damage was done and the Cubs were up 3-0.
Greinke would eventually settle down, throwing 100 pitches in six innings and allowing four earned runs. But that would be plenty for the Cubs, who pushed their record to 4-1 on the season with a 4-2 victory.
Bottom Play (WPA): On the other side of things, Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks looked great. He turned over the lineup a third time and—gasp!—didn’t transform into Mr. Hyde. He got Jean Segura to ground out weakly to Zobrist leading off the bottom of the sixth inning, then struck out Chris Owings, and induced a groundout from the dangerous and super-scary Paul Goldschmidt.
He came back out in the seventh and allowed a single to David Peralta leading things off, and Peralta promptly stole second base. With a runner now in scoring position and nobody out, Hendricks faced off against former Cub Welington Castillo. But he gave Castillo a 1-2 sinker, low and in the zone, and Beef could do nothing but watch it (-0.052).
That would be it for Hendricks, who gave way to reliever Adam Warren with the tying run coming to the plate. But Warren would get pinch-hitter Phil Gosselin to send a lazy fly into the glove of Heyward in right field to end the threat, and leaving Hendricks with a respectable line: 6 2/3 innings, four hits, two earned runs, one walk and five strikeouts.
Key Moment: Chris Owings led off the top of the fourth with a single off Hendricks and promptly stole second. That could’ve set in motion a bunch of no-good-very-bad-things with Goldschmidt, Peralta, and Castillo coming up. Goldie squared one up against Hendricks and it looked like the D-backs were about to get on the board, but Addison Russell says good day, sir:
Hendricks would end up walking Castillo and allowing a run on a wild pitch before getting out of it, so the fact that Russell kept Goldschmidt off the basepaths could have changed the eventual outcome of the game.
Trend to Watch: Jorge Soler, thrust into an important role with the absence of Kyle Schwarber, has struggled early on this season. After a rough spring training where he never looked comfortable, he’s started the season 2-for-17 with five strikeouts—including 0-for-4 with two K’s tonight. The Cubs need him to figure it out and provide some value with his bat, because he isn’t good enough defensively to justify playing on an everyday basis if he doesn’t. In fairness to Soler, it’s rough when you’re facing the quality of a guy like Greinke.
Coming Next: The Cubs turn over the rotation and send ace Jake Arrieta (1.77 ERA/2.38 FIP/2.33 DRA in 2015) to the mound against Shelby Miller (3.02/3.47/3.14) of the Diamondbacks. Miller had a rough outing his first time out this season, giving up three home runs and allowing six earned runs in six innings while striking out only two batters. Arrieta, on the other hand, was partying like it was August of 2015 on Opening Day against the Angels—tossing seven shutout innings with six strikeouts. The game will start at 3:10pm CST on WGN as the Cubs look to win the series and push their early road record to 5-1.
Lead photo courtesy Jennifer Stewart—USA Today Sports.