The Cubs played well enough to win. The Diamondbacks played badly enough to let the Cubs win big. Top Play (WPA): Archie Bradley shut down the Cubs through five innings, holding them scoreless on just two hits and two walks. Bradley always has good stuff, and early in Friday’s game, he had good command of it. […]
Author: Matthew Trueblood
Thinking Probabilistically About Sonny Gray, Stephen Piscotty, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Hendricks
In the last 10 days, I’ve run a pair of Twitter polls. In the first, which I ran on May 22, I asked followers who they would rather have, Kris Bryant or Stephen Piscotty. My follower sample will totally skew the results, but: Who would you rather have? — Matthew Trueblood (@MATrueblood) May 22, 2016 […]
Game 49 Recap: Cubs 2 Dodgers 0
The following things are always important to keep in mind when watching MLB baseball on Memorial Day: Whatever the announcers might say, Memorial Day does not mark a milestone at which numbers and the standings begin to mean something. Rany Jazayerli did once find that in-season performance starts to predict future performance at a team level […]
Game 43 Recap: Cardinals 4 Cubs 3
The Cubs were held to three or fewer runs for the seventh time in eight games, matching the number of such games they had in their first 35 contests. Against the best offense in baseball, three runs is hardly ever enough. Top Play (WPA): The Cardinals nosed out to an early lead on Monday night, but […]
Series Preview: Cubs at Cardinals, May 23-25
This is a moment, an opportunity for the Cubs to both create a little more breathing room between themselves and their most formidable divisional rival, and to get themselves out of the funk they’ve been in for almost a fortnight. If they miss that opportunity, it’d hardly be calamitous. The Cardinals can’t catch the Cubs […]
Game 38 Recap: Cubs 2 Brewers 1 (13 Innings)
The Cubs’ offense is mired in their worst slump since the NLCS, allowing themselves to be lured out of their approach at some points, executing poorly on hitter’s pitches in hitter’s counts at others, and making hard contact that goes tragically unrewarded at still others. That’s why it took them until the top of the […]
Series Preview: Cubs at Brewers, May 17-19
Until now, the Cubs have had it about as good as any team in baseball, schedule-wise. It’s one reason for their early success. Their home slate has been marred by bad weather, but they have played a fairly weak aggregate set of opponents, and a combination of two postponements and a few clustered off days […]
Game 36 Recap: Pirates 2 Cubs 1
The Pirates narrowly escaped with their first win over the Cubs in six games this season, but given the way it all unfolded, they’ll leave town feeling good about it. The Cubs hit the road knowing they missed some opportunities this week, going 3-3 with two one-run losses and one game coughed up by the […]
Game 32 Recap: Padres 7 Cubs 4
It’s a beautiful day for a ball game, in the sense that really any day when it isn’t raining is such a day. In a stricter sense, it’s a pretty miserable day for a ball game, and yet, this was just the first of two. Top Play (WPA): With neither starter pitching well early, the bottom […]
The Workaround: How the Cubs Keep Their Pitchers Healthy (Maybe)
The Cubs are off to a blistering start in 2016, not only winning at an historic clip, but doing it convincingly, with an unprecedented run differential and even better peripheral indicators of team quality. Last season was a different story. Though those Cubs eventually won 97 games, one of the key narratives surrounding them—and one […]