Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Top Play (WPA): The notorious sixth inning rolled around—a frame that’s seen the Cubs get outscored 22-6 by their opponents this season—and Jon Lester was clinging to a three run lead as the Cardinals mounted a two-out rally, breaking through with their second RBI single of the frame, as Pete Kozma sent a liner to center, scoring Jason Heyward (.168). The batter before Kozma was Yadier Molina, who took a half swing at a ball below the knees that was sure to bounce in the dirt. With just the type of luck the Cubs are having the last few games, the ball promptly landed in shallow center field to score Jhonny Peralta (.092). Thankfully, the two-out rally was extinguished when battery-mates Lester and David Ross emphatically struck out pinch-hitter Matt Adams (-.107).
Bottom Play (WPA): Cub closer Hector Rondon was on the bump for his first appearance since last Friday and with runners at first and third and one out, he struck out Mark Reynolds for the second to last out of the game (-258). With two outs in the ninth, Rondon coaxed a ground ball from Peralta to Starlin Castro, who failed to field the ball cleanly before forcing the runner at second to end the game (-.186).
The Cardinals played from behind the entire night, meaning the top and bottom plays are littered with chances the Cardinals did or did not manage to capitalize. For the first time in two games the Cardinals failed to get over the hump. However, it did not stop Cub fans everywhere from freaking the heck out on Twitter and in many living rooms across the Midwest.
Key Moment: There were several key moments in this contest, primarily when the Cardinals were one hit away from tying the game and miraculously, the Cubs slammed the door. Including a Pedro Strop induced double play in the eighth that ended a serious threat with one out and runners on first and third.
An interesting moment occurred in the sixth as the Cubs held a quasi-comfortable 5-2 lead when sudden-Cub-Killer Mark Reynolds grounded out to Bryant at third. Bryant cut the ball off directly in front of Castro. Your feelings on what Castro did next depend on which jersey you’re rooting for.
I picked this moment because immediately—according to Twitter—Cardinal fans and broadcasters began ripping Castro for his antics. The next batter reached on an error and the Cardinals started the two-out two-run rally noted above. Not that Castro’s actions had anything to do with the rest of the inning, but it is good for the franchise and the mental health of Cub fans everywhere that that moment won’t hang over our collective heads after nearly blowing another game in St. Louie.
Trends to Watch: A number of trends are worthy of discussion, including Lester and Ross visiting Busch stadium for the first time since game five of the 2013 World Series, Lester’s problems throwing to first while holding a runner or fielding the ball, Rizzo’s early season MVP candidacy (184 wRC+, fifth in the NL), Bryant’s ISO (.094) resting below Ben Revere’s ISO (.104), Matt Trueblood’s article dissected by Len Kasper in the first inning, both managers losing reviews in the first inning, and, Pedro Strop’s Carlos Marmol impersonation: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 1 HBP, 1 WP. Instead we’ll focus on one of the young guys.
Jorge Soler has started 2015 slow (35.5 K%/8.2 BB%) as he adjusts to advanced approaches by opposing pitchers. Baseballsavant.com notes when he hits the ball, he hits it extremely hard. For the batted balls in which data is available, the exit velocity on Soler’s batted balls average 96.1 mph—third in MLB behind Joc Pederson and Hanley Ramirez. However, Soler is in a funk typical of a young player. His contact rate for pitches outside the zone (44.6 percent), inside the zone (77.9 percent), overall contact rate (63.8 rate), and swinging strike percentage (16.1 percent) have all fallen relative to 2014, and fall well beneath league averages in all categories. Soler needed a little help.
Enter Joe Maddon. With Castro at the plate in the sixth inning, Maddon was arguing balls and strikes from the dugout before home-plate umpire DJ Reyburn gave him the heave-ho, Maddon’s second ejection of the season.
According to Maddon’s statement after the game, the ump called an “egregiously bad” game; 15.02 percent of strikes Reyburn calls are outside of the zone. One of Reyburn’s victims was Soler just an inning before Maddon was ejected. Soler looked at a pitch that was well outside the zone, only for the blue to call strike three. Take a look at the square in the Atlantic Ocean.
The at-bat before Soler was Bryant, who also struck out on three pitches. Look at the battleships off the Florida coast.
After the ump tossed him, Maddon jogged out to discuss dinner plans. Maddon got his money’s worth—including this lip-reading gem from yours truly: “You’ve been bleeping all my young guys…”
Low and behold, just two outs later, Addison Russell struck out. Same result, different process: take a look at the two green bogies in the Atlantic Ocean this time around.
The ump’s strike zone changed.
Fast forward.
In the Cubs half of the eighth, with the St. Louis Wights within one run, Bryant on second, and nobody out, Soler hit another top-spin heavy ground ball through the middle to score Bryant to make it 6-4, adding an insurance run that would be the difference in a 6-5 game.
I don’t know if Maddon is responsible for Reyburn’s change of heart with the strike zone in the sixth (I think so); I don’t know if Maddon gave Soler the confidence he needed to rip that RBI-single when the Cubs needed it (I think so); and, I don’t know if we have to set the opposition on fire to stop them (I think so). I do know the Cubs got one when they needed it—and I predict this victory will go much further than we realize for game 26 in early May. Our stopper was on the mound and we hung on for a gutsy victory.
Coming Next: The Cubs and Cardinals finish up their second series of the season and fourth and final game of this series with a 12:45 matinee. Jake Arrieta (2.84 ERA/2.69 FIP/3.46 DRA) squares off against John Lackey (3.69/3.60/4.02). Arrieta will try to bounce back from his shortest outing of the season when he only faced 22 batters. However, the Brewers hit ‘em where the Cubs weren’t (.449 BABIP) in that game, and I don’t suspect Arrieta will have trouble regaining the form we witnessed in the first four outings of the season. Specifically the first outing, when Arrieta blanked these Cards to the tune of 7.0 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 SO. Arrieta should continue to produce based on his strong peripherals (24.4 K%/6.3 BB%). On the other hand, Lackey strikes out far fewer (13.2 percent) and walks nearly the same amount of batters (5.9 percent). Additionally, Lackey’s hard-hit rate sits at 35.8 percent. For comparison, Arrieta’s hard-hit rate is 19.3 percent. Look for the Cubs to get behind Arrieta for the split between their chief competition.