Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Top Play (WPA): New Brewers manager Craig Counsell summoned left-hander Will Smith for the eighth inning to face the top of the Cubs’ order. Dexter Fowler managed a single, and with two outs Anthony Rizzo stepped to the plate. Last season, Rizzo posted an impressive .928 OPS versus left-handed pitchers (.348 TAv), and this year he’s continued the trend with an astounding 1.162 OPS. His improvement against lefties has been one of the largest factors in his transformation into an MVP-caliber hitter.
The Cubs’ slugger fell behind 1-2, and the slider-spinning Smith caught just enough of the outer half of the plate for Rizzo to extend his arms and lace a double over Ryan Braun’s head in right (.307 WPA). Braun misplayed the ball, and weak throws from Braun and second baseman Scooter Gennett—the latter short-hopping catcher Martín Maldonado—were not enough to catch Fowler, who scored from first and tied the game at two. Rizzo advanced to third on the play, but the Cubs failed to plate him with two outs.
Bottom Play (WPA): The Cubs’ sixth-inning troubles this young season are well documented. Joe Maddon has shown a propensity to pull his starters before or during their third time through the opponent’s lineup, but the impoverished bullpen has struggled to nail down the middle innings. The return of 2014’s breakout reliever Justin Grimm will alleviate some of those middle relief problems, and today he succeeded in bridging the gap from starter Kyle Hendricks to the rest of the bullpen.
Hendricks exited with one out in the sixth and a runner on first, after the Brewers had touched him for some hard contact the third time through. After a Braun stolen base (.031) and a “first base open” walk to Khris Davis (.033), Grimm got Jean Segura to ground into a 4-6-3 double play (-.154), the first of two key double plays turned by the Cubs’ young infield. Grimm touched 96 with his fastball, and with a hard mid-80s slider he should join Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop as the best Cubs relievers.
Key Moment: Maddon’s managing overshadowed much of the Cubs’ actual execution in this frustrating extra-inning loss, for reasons both bad and good. Turning to Grimm in the sixth paid off, but trusting Zac Rosscup for the seventh proved disastrous.
Near-identical fastballs to the light-hitting Maldonado and Elian Herrera resulted in back-to-back solo shots to left, pushing the Brewers ahead 2-1 (.241 and .216). With the depleted bullpen, Rosscup has seen high-leverage situations, and his new, harder slider has been generally effective. His heater isn’t quite that caliber, however, and major-league hitters are not likely to miss on meaty 93 mph fastballs on the inner half.
I wish I kept stats on how often I visited a player’s Brooks Baseball player card, because Rosscup would be leading all players by far—an indicator of how unexpected his usage in high-leverage situations has been. As expected, Rosscup throws his fastball early in counts and uses his slider as his “out” pitch when ahead. A two-pitch lefty like Rosscup must have otherworldly stuff to be effective against righties, and he simply hasn’t shown the stuff that would allow Maddon to use him for full innings in close games. I suspect he’ll return to a LOOGY role with Grimm off the DL and James Russell back in the mix.
Our other key moment occurred immediately after Rizzo’s game-tying double in the eighth. Lefty Miguel Montero was due to face lefty Will Smith. Montero has hit well this season, with a monster opposite field home run on the day and a .315 TAv prior to the game. Despite Montero’s resurgent bat, he’s struggled against lefties the past two seasons, and Maddon preferred a righty to face Smith.
With Jonathon Herrera, David Ross, and Matt Sczcur available on the bench, the bespectacled manager sent Sczcur to the plate, who promptly ended the Cubs’ scoring threat with a strikeout (-.088). Maddon’s ulterior motive was to double switch the catcher and move the pitcher’s spot from eighth to fourth in preparation for extra innings, a more sensible move with a deeper bench.
Trend to Watch: The bullpen and bench still ache for reinforcements, and carrying three catchers is beginning to stress the roster. With Arismendy Alcantara hitting well in Iowa and Javier Baez presumably on track to rejoin the team mid-summer, I expect some of those problems to be resolved with time. Until then, Maddon may need to preach tactics that will get his starters deeper into games, relieving the still-taxed bullpen and mitigating the need to pinch-hit several times per game.
Maddon’s managing style hasn’t jived with the roster composition, most glaringly obvious in the eleventh when Maddon sent Travis Wood to the plate in a tie game. Even given eleven innings, a pitcher should not be hitting with the game on the line. I’ve defended Maddon’s decisions to pull starters in the middle innings, due to ineffectiveness the third and fourth times through a lineup, but the current model is not sustainable. Either the roster must change (not likely), or Maddon must manage to his resources.
Coming Next: The past week has been frustrating for the Cubs, with consecutive series losses to division rivals. Things won’t get easier with the surprising Mets on deck: not only will they face Jacob deGrom (4.40 DRA/2.95 ERA) and Matt Harvey (3.85/2.72), two of the National League’s best pitchers, but on Tuesday they’ll have to tackle top prospect Noah Syndergaard in his debut. The Cubs counter with Jon Lester (4.74/4.04), Jake Arrieta (3.76/3.41), Jason Hammel (4.14/3.52), and Travis Wood (4.48/4.96), so the series will have a trio of marquee matchups. The club sits right at .500, second in the division, and this four game set could prove pivotal.