Game 45 Recap: Cubs 3 Nationals 2

Photo courtesy of David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Top Play (WPA): Going into the final frame, the Cubs were hitless with runners on base, but a sinker-happy Kyle Hendricks, some sterling defense, and a couple of solo home runs managed to keep the game tied. The BABIP gods stopped picking on Chris Coughlan for once and his seeing-eye single found the outfield in the bottom of the ninth. After Jonathan Herrera chopped a ball to second base and Ian Desmond threw the ball away trying to turn two (nice hard slide by Coghlan there, too), the table was set for Addison Russell, who delivered a game-winning double into the gap in right center (.399), marking his first ever three-hit game as a major leaguer. Game over.

Bottom Play (WPA): Tie game, top of the ninth, playing at home. It’s easy to think, “Well, let’s try to walk off in the bottom of the ninth,” and skip over the whole, “oh yeah we still have to get three outs here,” part of the game. And this is where the Cubs got lucky, because Hector Rondon was terrible. While the box score will credit him with an inning pitched, a strikeout, and a hit allowed—the numbers don’t tell the whole gory story. Rondon had absolutely no command of his pitches: it was like having the yips version of Carlos Marmol out on the mound.

He allowed a leadoff single to Yunel Escobar off a hanging slider, followed by the hardest hit ball of the night when Bryce Harper pulverized a line drive right at Dexter Fowler for the first out. The home plate ump gave him a break when his 3-2 slider missed but was called strike three on Ryan Zimmerman.

With Escobar on at second (he stole the bag) and his control still wavering (3-2 count), Rondon was desperately seeking any help he could find. You could feel the momentum shifting in favor of the Nationals. Enter Escobar: with no one covering the bag he decided to take off right as Rondon made a slow move towards second. Escobar was thrown out at third by a mile as third-base coach Bob Henley looked on in disgust (-.097). Crisis averted.

Rick Sutcliffe was calling the game on ESPN and he was railing on Rondon from the get go. I hate saying it, but his comments were spot on: Rondon was having a very bad time and was lucky to get bailed out. Games like this will only increase the whispers of a potential Rafael Soriano signing. If the Cubs expect to contend this year, they need to straighten Rondon out or get some additional help.

It almost appears as if Bob Henley is thinking, “I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed…”

Key Moment:  Anthony Rizzo is having a monster season right now, but Kris Bryant is probably the most dangerous hitter in the lineup. With the Cubs down a run in the eighth inning, Bryant came up against Aaron Barrett—a pitcher with a pretty filthy fastball/slider combination. He fell behind 0-2 and worked his way all the way back to 3-2 after fouling off a couple of tough pitches. Then he got a slider over the plate and he jumped on it. It’s hard to see, but the ball almost goes over the jumbotron:

Game tied—new ballgame.

What’s great is that the weight of these moments don’t fall exclusively on Bryant. He’s still just a 23-year-old rookie, and having Rizzo as the veteran presence will really help him develop at his own pace. One day Bryant will save the day, another day Rizzo will get the job done. No pressure guys… as long as someone is saving the day.

Trends to Watch: Ho hum, the Cubs starting pitcher has another helluva game against a tough lineup—seven one-run innings for Hendricks—what else is new? If only the offense can get it all going at the same time instead of relying on the starters to be perfect, then this team could be off and running. Over his last two starts, Hendricks has allowed one earned run in 16 innings of work—he’s showing some of that promise we saw last year that made us all automatically include him in the rotation plans for 2015.

Keep an eye on Starlin Castro at short. Whether he gets traded, moved to another position to make room for Javier Baez, or he stays at short—he’s doing a good job out there. In the third inning with a man on at second and one out, Denard Span hit a solid grounder that was going to get through the infield and tie the game. But Castro dove for it and kept it in the infield—a great fundamental play to make sure the ball doesn’t get past him when runners are on base. He didn’t try to do too much by throwing the ball around, he just held on. It saved a run and allowed Hendricks to get out of the inning without any damage.

Coming Next: The Cubs were playing great baseball a couple of weeks ago after sweeping the Mets and winning the series against the Pirates and Padres. After losing two of three from the D-Backs in frustrating fashion, it’s time for a statement win to take the series against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Max Scherzer. Advanced stats mark him as the fourth-best pitcher in the game with a 3.18 DRA. Worry not: the Cubs will have their own free-agent/ace on the mound in Jon Lester, who has been pitching better as of late. Lester has been allowing more home runs this season than he usually does (1.0 HR/9IP), so keep an eye on how that plays at Wrigley tonight—especially after the pop fly homerun we saw last night.

Keep an eye on who Maddon summons from the pen if a save situation arises. I’m betting we’ll see Travis Wood get a chance after Rondon’s precarious outing. He hasn’t thrown in four days and the Nationals are hitting .233 off him in their careers. Also, Bryce Harper is hitless (0-for-3) in his career—a very small sample—against Wood. Then again, this is Joe Maddon and you may see him tab Rondon again as a way to build his confidence back up. Ideally, Lester goes the distance and this all becomes a moot point. We shall see.