Top Play (WPA): Sometimes it’s not the guy with the big hit that makes the biggest difference, it’s the guy who set him up to do it. Such was the case tonight. In the top of the tenth inning, with the score tied 1-1 since the third, Anthony Rizzo came to the plate with nobody out and Dexter Fowler on first base (courtesy of an error by Hunter Dozier one batter before—it was originally scored a hit but was changed after the game ended). Rizzo, who’s showing definite signs of exiting his recent slump, promptly lined a single to center field and put runners on the corners. Two batters later, Starlin Castro drove both Rizzo and Fowler home, and put the Cubs in the driver’s seat for good. That play—Castro’s—increased the Cubs’ chances by 22.0 percent, but Rizzo’s earlier single was actually the key play of the game, improving their odds by a somewhat larger 22.4 percent. Want to watch Castro’s instead? Fine. Here it is:
Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom play of the game actually also involved Fowler, and came way back in the fifth inning. With nobody out and runners on first and second in a tie game, Fowler hit a hard line drive to first baseman Joe Mauer. Mauer snagged the liner and doubled David Ross off second, who had strayed off the base a little farther than advisable. That single play reduced the Cubs’ chances by a solid 15.2 percent, but it wasn’t all bad. As we know, they ended up winning the game in the end, and Fowler ended up making a key contribution to that effort by gunning down Byron Buxton, the Twins top prospect, as he tried to advance to second base on a flyout in the bottom of the ninth inning. You win some, you lose some. Here’s the one Fowler won:
Key Moment: The sixth inning was a bit of a nightmare for the Cubs, but it all started so well. Kris Bryant led off the inning with a walk off of Trevor May, the starter, which was promptly followed by a single to right by Chris Coghlan, who is showing signs of finally beating the BABIP monster that has eaten up his triple-slash line for much of this season. That put runners on first and third with nobody out. After two consecutive strikeouts from Castro and Kyle Schwarber (he does record outs!), and a walk from Chris Denorfia, Ross was due to make a trip to the plate. At this point, with three catchers on the roster (remember, Schwarber can catch, and indeed already has caught a big-league inning) pretty much everyone expected Miguel Montero to take the at-bat. He didn’t. Ross stayed in, and promptly struck out. It wasn’t quite the worst play of the game—that’s listed above—but it was pretty bad, and representative of the Cubs’ struggles with runners in scoring position in today’s game. More on Ross later.
Trends to Watch: There’s no error in the box score to record it, and he did make a few sparkling plays, but it’s hard to shake the impression that Castro is still very much in his own head defensively. There are times the Castro looks visibly frustrated on the field—Friday’s error is the obvious example, but that appeared to be the case on when he knocked down Kurt Suzuki’s hit in Saturday’s seventh inning as well. His manager, and his front office, have been publicly supportive, but you have to imagine frustration is mounting as the mental problems don’t seem to be fully resolved despite what seems to be a genuine effort by the young shortstop to improve. I’ve been a Castro defender for a while now, and I’ll stay one after today, but good intentions only get you so far in this brutally competitive business. Castro will have to become more consistent on the routine defensive plays,tonight’s big hit notwithstanding, or he may find himself on the outside looking in as the Cubs seek to play deep into October.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on Maddon’s use of Ross late in games. Coming into the season, the Cubs’ brass insisted that Ross wasn’t merely Lester’s personal catcher, but that he and Montero (and, originally, Welington Castillo) would split time behind the plate largely on the basis of matchups, with Montero getting perhaps slightly more of the starts. That hasn’t really happened, and moments like today’s—where Ross stays in the game in high-leverage offensive situations—will continue to be questioned until Ross proves he can hit better than his current .188/.297/.297 line indicates.
Coming Next: The series finale tomorrow in Minnesota—featuring sometime-ace Jake Arrieta against Kyle Gibson—will also feature Cubs’ fans last look at Schwarber for a little while. Despite his excellent performance over the last five games (.389/.389/.667), Maddon and the front office have remained adamant that Schwarber will return to Triple-A Iowa at the conclusion of the Twins series to get “an undergraduate degree in catching,” as Maddon put it. This will no doubt cause some level of consternation among the more vocal members of the fanbase, but in my book it’s the right move. Schwarber has oodles—that’s the technical term—more value to the franchise as a catcher than he does as a left fielder, and the Cubs can’t play all their games in DH-permissive parks. Schwarber will spend a few weeks at Iowa until either an injury to one of the two big-league catchers opens up a spot, or his performance dictates that he move up anyway. At the very latest, barring a total collapse in performance, he’ll be up in September when the rosters expand. The Cubs, meanwhile, will travel back to Wrigley to take on the Dodgers.
Lead photo courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports