The youthful Chicago Cubs ran into a buzz saw this weekend, as the grizzled and experienced St. Louis Cardinals overpowered them with their know-how and grit and whatever other things you need to say to yourself to move on.
In reality, what happened this past weekend was a probably pretty good team faced a definitely very good team for three games, and the latter team won all three. Some of that was good fortune, a lot of it was true talent differential, and some of it was just baseball.
That said, to whatever you attribute the losses in St. Louis (and the two against the Dodgers in Chicago that preceded them), the situation for the Cubs has irrevocably changed in the NL Central race. To wit, the Cubs are now down 11.5 games (a sweep in the other direction and it would have been just 5.5 games), and their divisional odds look grim.
As of this morning, BP has the Cubs’ odds of winning the NL Central at just 5.2 percent, which actually feels rather optimistic.
Consider: Even if the Cardinals play merely .500 ball the rest of the way, they’ll finish the year with 95 wins (rounded up for Voodoo Magic). So great is their 51-24 record advantage right now.
For the Cubs (39-35) to win 96 games and topple the Cardinals in that scenario, they’d have to go 57-31 over their final 88 games. That’s a .648 clip over more than half of a season. It’s not impossible—the Cardinals have played .680 ball for 75 games this year—but it’s incredibly onerous.
And, again: that’s if the Cardinals play at merely .500 for the rest of the season, something I doubt too many would bet on. Indeed, PECOTA projects the Cardinals to go 45-42 over their remaining 87 games. In that case, the Cubs would need to win 58 games the rest of the way, or a .659 clip.
All is not lost, however, even if you rule the Cubs out of the NL Central race.
BP still gives the Cubs a 56.1 percent chance of claiming one of the NL’s two Wild Card spots (61.2 percent overall playoff chance, when you throw in the divisional scraps). Even as the Cubs are not presently in a Wild Card spot, recent history should make you happy about their chances.
In 2014, each of the two NL Wild Card teams won 88 games. The next closest team won just 82 games.
In 2013, the Wild Card teams won a more robust 94 and 90 games, but the next closest team won just 86 games.
In 2012, the first of the two-team Wild Card era, the entrants came in at 94 and 88 wins. The first team out, once again, won 86 games.
Based on those win totals, you could make an argument that a team must win at least 90 games to feel comfortable about its chances to make the playoffs in this era. You could also argue that winning just 83 to 85 games is going to give you a chance.
To reach 90 wins, the Cubs must go 51-37, or win at a .580 clip. Maybe that seems like a lot, given the Cubs’ .527 winning percentage so far this year, but consider: if you flip just four games in the Cubs’ favor in the first half this year, giving them 43 wins instead of 39 (something that could easily have happened based on stray bounces alone), that puts them at .581. In other words, the difference between .527 and .580, even over the course of nearly a half-season, is not that great.
To reach 83 wins—and at least stay in the conversation—the Cubs need a mere 44-44 record the rest of the way. That’s right: .500 ball could keep the Cubs within Wild Card striking distance on into September.
Neither of those extreme scenarios is likely to play out, of course. But it’s interesting to know that all the Cubs have to do is win more games than they lose the rest of the way to (probably) have a realistic shot at making the playoffs for the first time in seven years.
It doesn’t hurt the dreaming to know that the Cubs’ strength of schedule to date has been the toughest in all of baseball. With some more savory match-ups looming on the very near horizon, maybe the optimistic case won’t look so optimistic come mid-August.
A final thought on the Cubs claiming a Wild Card spot this year, despite recent struggles. I’d like to take a moment to look at two of last year’s Wild Card teams: the Royals and the Giants.
I offer them not only because they were both Wild Card entrants to the playoffs last year, and not only because they met in the World Series, but also because the mid-summer 2014 standing for each team provides an interesting anecdote.
As late as July 21, 2014, the Royals were two games under .500. But, over their final 64 games, the Royals won an astounding 41 times (a .640 clip) and claimed a Wild Card spot. So “out of it” were the Royals, that folks openly questioned why they weren’t selling in late July. When other teams decide not to sell this year, the Royals’ is the story to which you’ll hear folks pointing … rightly or not. Thing is, that Royals team was super talented, and not every .500-ish team is.
By contrast, the Giants dominated the early part of 2014, reaching a 43-21 record by early June, and putting a full 10 games between themselves and the next best team in the NL West. But, from June 9 to August 12, the Giants went just 20-36, turning their 10-game lead into a 5.5-game deficit. But they closed the season on a 25-17 run (.595), and they, too, claimed a Wild Card spot.
As I said, these are merely interesting, and not necessarily instructive, anecdotes. I simply find it comforting to see that these kinds of things happen, even as recently as last year. Good teams struggle early, and then go on tears. Other teams dominate early, fall flat on their face … and can still come back.
Lead photo courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports