Top Play (WPA): Jonathan Herrera. What can I say about him that hasn’t already been said, often somewhat rudely, by the joyless denizens of Twitter? Honestly, not much; he seems like a nice guy and a good teammate, but a .256/.274/.341 line coming into play today is hard to get too excited about, especially when it comes with so little projection. All of which is to say that he had an excellent day today, tallying two hits in four plate appearances. The first of his hits, a long line-drive single into the gap in right, scored Chris Coghlan and Starlin Castro and put the Cubs up 2-0 in the second inning. As it turned out, those would be the only runs Cubs’ starter Jake Arrieta and his bullpen would need, but WPA doesn’t know that, and noted that the play improved the Cubs’ chances of winning the game by 19.7 percent. Not bad for a utility infielder.
Bottom Play (WPA): Arrieta, who’s been on a bit of a hitting tear lately (and a pitching one as well; more on that later), had one glorious hit today, but the bottom play of the game from WPA’s perspective came after he came to the plate in the second inning with the bases loaded against Braves starter Shelby Miller. As so many of his teammates also did on the day, Arrieta failed to get the runners in, striking out on five pitches for the second out of the inning. That play reduced the Cubs’ chances by a solid 8.2 percent, though I imagine most will forgive Arrieta given his performance on the mound (and the fact that he’s not paid to hit big-league pitching).
Key Moment: One of my favorite moments of the 2014 Cubs season—a season which featured more than the usual amount of ‘Cubbie occurrences’—was Jorge Soler’s two-homer game against the St. Louis Cardinals, less than a week into his big-league career. With those blasts, Soler and the Cubs put the league on notice that the Cubs were coming, and coming fast. In my book, at least, it was the night that the current Cubs’ attitude took hold among the players. Watch these bombs again, and try not to smile:
Anyway, today’s game, like last season as a whole, featured more than the usual amount of ‘Cubbie occurrences’, as the offense failed to drive runners in time and time again. Given that, I thought it might be nice to use this section to highlight another Soler home run, this one coming off of Miller in the third inning. Like so many he hits, it was an absolute shot, eventually landing just over the ‘400’ sign in Turner Field’s deep center. Enjoy:
Trends to Watch: Something something offense something something. You don’t need me to talk more about that. As above, let’s celebrate starting pitching: over his last 46 2/3 innings, including today’s start, Arrieta has allowed exactly five earned runs. That’s good for an 0.96 ERA, which is obviously excellent. And this guy’s not an All-Star? The Cubs have actually had excellent starting pitching all around for a while now, and the full-season numbers don’t look too bad either: of the Cubs’ top four starters, only Jon Lester, who’s been superb lately, has a DRA- above 100. Over the last 30 days, Cubs starters have accumulated 10.8 fWAR, which is the highest such figure in baseball, and their numbers including relievers put them at second, behind *cough* the Cardinals. It’s not the pitching, folks.
Coming Next: Cincinnati, the Queen City. Cincinnati, home of All-Stars. Cincinnati, which really needs to start selling fast. That’s where the Cubs are headed, just in time to start a four-game set against the Reds that’ll be played over just three days. Wednesday’s the double-header; if Twitter is to be believed, Dallas Beeler will be coming up from Iowa to start one of the two games. Tomorrow’s game will feature newish Cub Clayton Richard (253 DRA-, 117 cFIP) against newish Red Michael Lorenzen (141 DRA-, 129 cFIP), who made his big-league debut against the Cubs earlier this year. The Cubs will seek to build off of their success against Atlanta to continue to shore up their Wild Card lead, which they are currently defending against the Mets and Giants, and climb upwards towards the Pirates and Cardinals within the division. Onwards.
Lead photo courtesy of Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports