Top Play (WPA): The Cubs are 10 games over .500 for the first time since their last playoff season in 2008.
It’s especially nice to type that only a week after the first no-hitter thrown against the club in nearly half a century, part of an embarrassing sweep at home against the Phillies. The Cubs escaped a key four-game set in Milwaukee with a sweep of their own, however. I say “escaped” because Hector Rondon nearly let the Cubs’ 4-1 lead slip away in the ninth inning.
Rondon faced the meat of the Brewers’ recently weakened lineup, giving up a single to Ryan Braun to lead off the inning (.043). On the seventh pitch of the next at-bat, Adam Lind singled to left, moving Braun to third and bringing the tying run to the plate (.117). Following a Khris Davis strikeout, Rondon failed to get the light-hitting Elian Herrera out (.239 TAv), who hit the ball softly enough to second to score Braun on a fielder’s choice (-.061).
Lind’s single was the greatest difference maker in terms of WPA in the game, upping the Brewers’ win expectancy to 19.5 percent, but the play after Herrera’s fielder’s choice is what people will undoubtedly latch onto. Center fielder Shane Peterson rolled a 1-1 Rondon pitch to shortstop, just hard enough for Castro to not charge the ball, and the Cubs’ shortstop booted it, allowing the inning to continue (.046). The eye test (and Len Kasper and Jim Deshaies) have identified Castro’s trouble with balls that catch him “in between,” not allowing him to charge the ball and leaving him on his heels.
Bottom Play (WPA): Fortunately, despite an Hernan Perez single that scored Herrera (.072), Rondon got Logan Schafer to line out hard to Dexter Fowler in center to end the game and seal the Cubs’ tie with the Giants for the second wild card spot in the NL (-.162).
Key Moment: Addison Russell hit a long home run to center in the second to give the Cubs a 2-0 lead, but the key moment of the game was the result of a somewhat curious managerial decision.
Up 2-1 in the fourth, an inning after Joe Maddon argued a replay call and received a prompt ejection, Jorge Soler and Starlin Castro managed consecutive singles to lead off the inning. Clayton Richard’s spot was due next; bench coach Dave Martinez was confident in the lefty’s ability to keep the Brewers at bay, and let the pitcher hit.
Castro ended up out at second on a stolen base attempt, but Richard rewarded Martinez’s decision by doubling just inside the left-field line, scoring Soler to put the Cubs up 3-1.
Trend to Watch: The Cubs are hitting home runs! Over the past week, the Cubs have slugged .414 and posted a .176 ISO, much better than their season marks of .372 and .135. Of course, much of that is due to Anthony Rizzo’s four-game home run streak, but Russell and Kyle Schwarber have also added homers in recent games. The club has done very well to put baserunners on all year, even in their most dire of offensive droughts (their team OBP is right at the NL average of .314), but their slugging percentage is third-to-last in the majors, nearly 20 points below the NL average of .391. There’s basically no way that the Cubs don’t improve that number: the young bats will start hitting for more power as they mature, Javier Baez will be back with the big-league team, Miguel Montero will return from his rehab assignment soon, and Anthony Rizzo likely won’t slump again this season.
Perhaps most importantly, Kris Bryant, who left this game due to dizziness after a slide into second, has still not tapped into his latent power, but his second and third times facing the National League might help with that. Long story short, if the Cubs can hit for power, they’re going to win more games.
Coming Next: After reeling off five straight wins, the Cubs stand even with the Giants for the second wild card at 57-47, a mere four games behind the Pirates for the first slot. They’ll roll into Pittsburgh Monday night for a key three-game series, perhaps the most important of the year to date, with a chance to gain some serious ground in both the Wild Card and divison races.
The Cubs’ twin aces, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, take the mound Monday and Tuesday, with new acquisition Dan Haren getting the ball Wednesday. A.J. Burnett just went to the DL for Pittsburgh with (sadly) a possible career-ending arm injury, but the Pirates counter with Francisco Liriano, new Pirate J.A. Happ, and Jeff Locke. Lester had a downright dominant month of July, and he’ll face the 19th-ranked offense by OPS.
Lead photo courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports