Top Play (WPA): It’s not really noticeable until you look carefully, but the ivy-clad brick walls in the Wrigley outfield are capped, just above the yellow-rimmed wire basket, with a two-foot deep rim of smooth concrete painted in the deepest green. For most of its history (to be fair, it’s a short one—that rim was re-poured this past offseason), that rim has sat in quiet nondescription; perhaps an occasional beer rested upon it, and certainly there have been small children lifted above its height for a better look at the field of play. But, for the most part, it hasn’t done much. Not so today. Today, Dexter Fowler, the Cubs hot-since-the-break center fielder, sent a two-strike fastball from the Brewers’ Tyler Cravy hurtling towards that concrete barrier. When it arrived, barely clearing the basket on the way, it caromed off the concrete so fast that the umpires were initially uncertain whether it had cleared the basket at all. It had, and replay review confirmed Fowler’s home run (+0.252). One batter later, Kyle Schwarber followed Fowler into the seats with a blast of his own (+0.075)—it would turn out to be his first of two in the game—and by the time the inning ended, Anthony Rizzo had joined the party as well (+0.048), and Cravy was left on the bench to contemplate what went wrong. A fun inning.
Bottom Play (WPA): The fifth inning was a bit dicey for the Cubs. Cravy (at that point still in the game) led off by striking out swinging against Cubs’ starter Jon Lester, but Jean Segura quickly followed him with a double. Lester had been in trouble all day long—but especially in the third inning—with the running game, and Segura wasted no time in testing David Ross’s arm behind the plate. This time, it didn’t pay off, and Ross nabbed Segura at third with a beautiful throw (-0.078). At that point, the score was still tied at one run apiece, which meant that the …
… Key Moment of today’s game was what happened next. It was 81 degrees at game time, and Lester was getting squeezed all day by the plate umpire. In a close game, getting through that fifth inning unscathed was imperative. Indeed, after Ross threw out Segura, it looked as if the inning might be on its way to a quick ending; there were, after all, two outs and nobody on base. But then Jonathan Lucroy walked, after an excellent plate appearance, and Ryan Braun quickly followed with a sharply-hit ground ball into right field, putting runners at the corners with a flagging Lester on the mound.
The first two pitches to Khris Davis were balls, putting the Cubs’ ace on his heels right away. But Davis fouled off pitch number three, then took a called strike to even the count at two apiece. The crowd at Wrigley, so energetic all season, rose to their feet. Lester set for delivery, and got his man with a called third strike on the outside corner. Since a shaky start to the season, Lester has been everything the Cubs could have hoped for in an ace (1.92 ERA since July 1, for example), trailing Jake Arrieta in most Cubs pitching categories mainly because Arrieta’s been really good more than through any fault of his own. That strikeout against Davis was exactly what you want an ace to do: get out of an inning and keep your team in the game, especially when you don’t have your best stuff.
Trends to Watch: Starlin Castro, recently relegated to a bench role, made the most of his limited opportunity in today’s seventh inning. Manager Joe Maddon lifted Lester for Castro in that inning (as it turned out, his eventual replacement was Jason Motte), and Castro responded by lining a powerful single into left on the fifth pitch of the sequence. The fans at Wrigley gave Castro a nice ovation as he came to the plate, which—at least in my opinion—is great to see. Castro’s been nothing but upstanding in his reaction to a demotion that has to sting a little bit, and if he can continue to produce in a part-time role he’ll be very valuable to this team indeed. Speaking of valuable, let’s watch Kyle Schwarber hit his first of two home runs:
Coming Next: When the team is on a streak like this, it can feel like the 15 hours between a night game and a following day game is too long. Tonight, Cubs fans will have to wait nearly 24 hours between the end of today’s game and the beginning of tomorrow’s, as first pitch at the Cell isn’t until 3:10 pm Central tomorrow. Current Cub Kyle Hendricks (96 cFIP, 90 DRA-) will face former Cub Jeff Samardzija (100, 83) as the Cubs look to even their season series against the White Sox—they lost two of three to the South Siders at Wrigley July 10-12, in their final series before the All-Star break. Maddon has already announced that either Miguel Montero or Schwarber, who’s staying hot, will DH for much of the series, and you can expect Castro to get a start at second base in either Saturday’s game (against José Quintana) or Sunday’s (Chris Sale), where his five-point OPS+ split will come in handy. For now, though, the task is Samardzija. The Cubs will look to extend their season-high winning streak to eight games and continue their march to the postseason. Onwards.
Lead photo courtesy of Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports