Top Play (WPA): It was a very weird moment. Kyle Schwarber, who has been tearing up the league, was on deck with a runner on first and Dexter Fowler up, and the White Sox chose to walk Fowler intentionally—putting runners on first and second—to reach Schwarber with two outs in the bottom of the fifth inning. Not what you’d typically say. Schwarber promptly made the Sox pay with a line-drive single to right field, scoring Addison Russell (+0.150) and putting the Cubs up 2-1. The Sox would never regain the lead, and Robin Ventura was left wondering what could possibly have gone wrong. I’m still not sure I really understand his thinking here. I mean, yeah, Sox starter Jose Quintana is a lefty, and so is Schwarber, and in general that’s a matchup that favors the pitcher, but really? Matchups can only take you so far, and this is one of those situations where the situation has to dictate a different approach.
Bottom Play (WPA): In the fourth inning of what was then a tie game, Arrieta faced Carlos Sanchez with runners at the corners. It took a six-pitch sequence, but Sanchez ended up striking out swinging (-0.080) to bring up Tyler Flowers, who promptly did exactly the same (-0.079), though this time on four pitches rather than six. That ended the threat for the time being. I’ve described it drily, because there weren’t a lot of hugely consequential plays on the negative side in this one—more a parade of a thousand cuts that added up to a Cubs victory. In any event, Arrieta’s strikeout of Sanchez was the biggest negative play of the game, at least by WPA. And that’s that.
Key Moment: It ended up being inconsequential to the result, but it’s still worth talking about, because it was a little sloppy. In the second inning, Cubs starter Jake Arrieta was pitching to Avisail Garcia in a scoreless game. On the fifth pitch of the sequence, Arrieta let a breaking ball go, and it caught Garcia squarely on his right elbow. Shortly thereafter, a wild pitch allowed Garcia to advance to second, and after Adam LaRoche flew out to left, the Cuban Missile—Alexei Ramirez—hit a hard bouncer back to Arrieta, who made an athletic leap to grab it. Cognizant of the situation, Arrieta pivoted to third, checked the runner, and then softly tossed the ball to Anthony Rizzo at first for the out. Except that’s not quite what happened. Arrieta left his release point a little up, and the ball floated over Rizzo’s head, which allowed Garcia to advance to third and (of course) permitted the runner to reach first safely. One batter later, Sanchez hit a soft grounder to Starlin Castro at second. Since Castro was playing back on the grass, the run scored, leaving Arrieta with an unearned run on his ledger despite not having given up a hit (or even allowing a ball out of the infield, save to LaRoche). Sloppy, and unfortunate. Luckily, it didn’t end up mattering to the outcome.
Trends to Watch: It’s not really a trend—or at least it isn’t yet— but this was one of the Cubs’ sloppiest games of the year. Nothing seemed to really come together defensively, and the offensive approach wasn’t as consistent as it’s been in the past few days. Because, so far, it’s a one-time thing, I won’t say any more about it here. Just something to file away, and keep an eye on going forward. On a more positive note (and this truly is a trend) Arrieta was solid once again tonight, continuing a streak of excellent outings that goes back to June 21st against the Twins. In the stretch beginning with that start, Arrieta’s allowed more than two earned runs just once. In fact, he’s allowed a grand total of just 12 earned runs over 80 innings pitched, which is—let me check this—really good. Tonight, he allowed just three runs—one of them unearned (see above!)—over 6 2/3 innings pitched. It wasn’t his strongest outing ever, but he kept the team in the game, and that’s all you can ask for. There’s been some discussion on this site already about who might start a potential Wild Card game for the Cubs, and with every start Arrieta has like he had tonight, he adds to the case that he should be The Man for The Game in Chicago. For what it’s worth, I’m more in favor of a matchup approach to the Wild Card game (which approach may or may not dictate that Arrieta starts), but that’s a conversation for another day. For now, it’s worth enjoying the man, and the roll he and his team are on.
Coming Next: This time of the year, things get hard around baseball. The adrenaline that comes after victory wears off eventually, and players tire. Aches and pains pop up, and coming to the ballpark at 100 percent—or even near it—becomes a challenge up and down the roster. The Cubs, I am sure, are no exception. Despite their season-high nine-game winning streak—which they’ll take into play tomorrow—I’m sure the team is looking forward to the off day they’ll enjoy on Monday. Before they get there, though, they’ll have to face White Sox ace Chris Sale for a matinee tomorrow. Sale has been excellent as usual in 2015, posting a cFIP of 64 and a DRA- of 72. Both marks put him solidly in the upper echelon of big-league pitchers, and the Cubs will have their work cut out for them if they want to extend their winning streak to 10.
Lead photo courtesy Dennis Wierzbicki/USA Today Sports.