Top Play (WPA): Starlin Castro. I’m putting his name up front because he’s what this game will be remembered for. And although I’ll get to the details of that storyline later (in ‘Trends to Watch’), for now I must say just this: Castro’s fifth-inning two-run home run (+0.221) was the biggest play of the game, by WPA, and his sixth-inning three-run blast wasn’t far behind (+0.117). The first blast (which drove in Miguel Montero) was particularly titanic, and Starlin took a moment to admire his handiwork:
For what it’s worth, I don’t mind players watching their home runs. It’s really hard to hit big-league pitching at the best of times, and when you do it like that … well, I’m willing to allow it. We’ll come back to that moment, and Castro, later on.
Bottom Play (WPA): This one came early. In the fifth inning, facing Zac Rosscup, the Cardinals managed to load the bases with just one out. Rosscup, who’d looked totally lost with respect to the strike zone earlier in the inning, managed to strike out Jason Heyward on three pitches (-0.101), the last one a vanishing slider, and then retire Jhonny Peralta on a flyout to right (-0.096). Those were the bottom two plays of the game, but there’s so much more to talk about. Like this next moment, for example.
Key Moment: There was a point in this game where it looked like it might go down as a frustrating loss. In the bottom of the first inning, Tommy La Stella missed an opportunity to score on a throw that got past Cardinals’ catcher Tony Cruz. The Cubs scored three, but left the inning feeling they should have gotten more. The next inning, with one out and Steven Piscotty at the dish, a simple ground ball to Anthony Rizzo trickled past his glove and into right field, allowing (eventually) two runs to score in the inning. From that point forward, the Cubs outscored the Cardinals 5-1. There were a lot of key moments in this game—it certainly featured enough drama for several games—but recovering from that shaky start showed me a lot about this team’s capacity to bounce back.
Trend to Watch: There’s a lot to talk about here. I could have written about lineup flexibility: it’s wonderful that the Cubs can field a lefty-heavy lineup that leaves Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Austin Jackson on the bench. It’s wonderful that Justin Grimm threw a perfect inning today; that’s a return to form that will be critical in stabilizing a shaky bullpen as we move forward. And it’s wonderful that that bullpen, for the most part, shut the Cardinals’ offense down after Dan Haren’s second consecutive rough start. But I don’t want to talk about any of those wonderful things. I want to write about something even better—something that’s been a long time coming.
Starlin Castro is back.
It’s hard to tell where today fits into Castro’s story, but that’s because his story is far from over. However, it’s clear that today will be remembered when the tale is told. Since his benching in early August, Castro has hit .355/.370/.589. He’s hit five home runs. He’s handled a difficult situation with class and grace, and today—after he hit two booming home runs to left field—he took a curtain call in front of the Wrigley crowd. It was hard to watch that scene and not get a little emotional. Baseball is a game of a lot of things, but today it was a game of redemption. No single Cubs player has been the focus of as much frustration, as much unresolved tension, and as much ‘tough love’ as Castro has over the last 24 months. To come back from that dark place as he did today—and indeed has, over the last few months; well, there’s only one word for that. It’s beautiful.
Coming Next: The Cubs will look to pick up another game on the Cardinals tomorrow against St. Louis’s ace, Michael Wacha. Wacha has been typically excellent this season, posting a cFIP of 98 and a DRA- of 83 over 167 2/3 innings of work. He’ll be a tough assignment for the surging Cubs, although it hasn’t all been sunshine and roses for Wacha lately, either: over his last 10 innings pitched, he’s given up nine hits and eight earned runs—six of which came against the Cubs in St. Louis on September 8th. The Cubs will counter with a bullpen day (or, as the ABC7 broadcast put it, with “Joe Allstaff”) to preserve their rotation order in preparation for the Wild Card game.
Maddon announced after the game that Travis Wood would get the start on Saturday, but expect Trevor Cahill and possibly Clayton Richard (who tossed 3 1/3 on Thursday) to get time as well. Whatever happens, it’ll be an interesting game to dissect, with drama and even some bad blood boiling to the surface in today’s game (courtesy of Castro’s watched shot, a Matt Holliday hit-by-pitch, and the general beatdown the Cubs delivered on Cardinals pitching). With a win tomorrow, the Cubs will put themselves in position for a sweep, thus preserving their division hopes. Onwards! If they’re all like this one, we’re in for a fun October.
Lead photo courtesy Jasen Vinelove—USA Today Sports.