Top Play (WPA): Kyle Hendricks, wonderfully profiled by our own Rian Watt, pitched very well against the Brewers Wednesday evening, but not well enough to best baby-faced Zach Davies in the game that will be forever known as The Battle between Two Pitchers Who Look Considerably Younger Than This 23-Year-Old Author.
Hendricks cruised through four and two-thirds innings, not allowing a baserunner until Jean Segura’s fifth-inning single (+.015). Segura promptly stole second, setting him up to score on Luis Sardinas’ grounder that found the left-field grass (+.160). Hendricks escaped the fifth having allowed only the one run, and finished with only his third quality start since July 10th.
Much has been made of the question, “Arrieta and Lester, and then who?” and Hendricks’ solid start in this game probably won’t weigh too heavily in the mind of Joe Maddon (he was facing a very weak Brewers lineup with the wind blowing in), but it’s at least an encouraging sign, while Jason Hammel limps into the postseason.
Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom play in this one is fairly intuitive. After another Tommy La Stella liner to the outfield—La Stella is making a case to be a great bench and pinch-hit option in the playoffs—Chris Coghlan stepped to the plate with no one out in the eighth against righty Jeremy Jeffress.
After taking a strike, Coghlan hit a sharp grounder to second, and the Brewers’ middle infield easily doubled up the two Cubs (-.138). Had Coghlan managed to at least avoid a double play, the top of the order was due up. As it was, Dexter Fowler grounded out to end the inning, and the last Cubs threat of the night.
Key Moment: Justin Grimm continues to be… less than good. Maddon went to the hard-throwing righty after pulling Hendricks in the seventh with no one out, and Grimm proceeded to walk three of the five batters he faced in an anemic Brewers lineup. He also allowed a very deep fly to left-center off the bat of Martin Maldonado, saved only by the remarkable diving play by Kyle Schwarber, Gold Glove Left Fielder. Schwarber tossed ball—and glove—to Fowler for the relay throw, but Khris Davis scored, putting the Brewers up 3-0.
Having shown a smidgen of promise in his past few outings, it’s disheartening for Grimm to have thrown gas on the fire in this game. If this trend continues, it’s inevitable that Grimm will soon fall out of favor with Maddon, finding himself behind the likes of Trevor Cahill, Fernando Rodney, and Neil Ramirez in the bullpen pecking order.
Trend to Watch: The Cubs only run came in the form of a Jorge Soler laser home run to left, his third since returning to the lineup in only nine plate appearances.
The home run also made Soler the ninth Cub with double-digit home runs, the first time in franchise history they have accomplished that feat. The Cubs’ August and September power surge is a subject I will cover again soon, since they’ve pulled off quite a turnaround from the first several months of the season.
The Cubs’ outfield is stacked heading into October. Kyle Schwarber hasn’t been hitting well of late (a paltry .165/.287/.417 in his last 122 plate appearances, dating back to August 14th), but an outfield slate of Fowler, Schwarber, Coghlan, Soler, and Austin Jackson has almost no weaknesses offensively. On the defensive side, the club is well below average, but that improves when Jackson is in the lineup or comes in as a sub. It’s been a topic of much discussion lately, but the Cubs might be the deepest team heading into this year’s playoffs, a direct product of their prospect graduation rate and player development.
Coming Next: A marquee pitching matchup coming on Friday afternoon, as Jon Lester, sporting a 3.46 ERA and 3.91 DRA, squares off with Pirates’ ace Gerrit Cole, who sits at 2.64 and 3.33, respectively. The Cubs couldn’t quite get to Cole early enough last weekend in Pittsburgh, but a favorable pitching matchup and home ballpark should improve their chances against him this go around.
Lester was dominant two starts ago against the Pirates, a complete game in which he allowed one run and struck out nine. Last start, he was more pedestrian, but he’s been very good in September (8.67 strikeouts per nine, .191 opponents’ batting average). As Andrew Felper noted in another superb edition of “The Ballad of John Lester,” the pitcher has all five of his offerings working right now, a good sign with October bearing down and meaningful games against the Pirates on the slate.
The Cubs can clinch a playoff spot this weekend, and can tie for the Wild Card lead with Pittsburgh if they can complete a difficult sweep, keeping in mind that they own the season head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s going to be a sunny and fun weekend at the Friendly Confines.
Lead photo courtesy of Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports