Top Play (WPA): This game got out of hand for the Reds early, as the Cubs scored four runs in the first inning and never really looked back. The big blow in that inning came from Miguel Montero, who doubled to right-center (+0.174) off of Reds’ starter and Most-Boring-Name-Of-All-Time contender Josh Smith, scoring Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo and putting the Northsiders up 3-0. Other big knocks came from Javier Baez, who scored Montero (+0.068) on a sloppy play on which Jay Bruce overthrew the cutoff man, allowing Baez to advance to third; and from Tommy La Stella, who drove in Dexter Fowler with a sacrifice fly (+0.010). There weren’t a lot of other big plays on the game, because Dan Haren shut down the Reds most of the rest of the way, and the Cubs’ bullpen took care of the rest (despite allowing an unearned run in the ninth).
It’s worth mentioning Haren’s start for a moment, because there’s a real chance it’ll be his last as a major-leaguer. Haren won’t make the Wild Card roster, and although he’s scheduled to start the final game of the regular season (October 4th), he may want to skip that start and make this his last one, because it was a beauty: 7 1/3 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, and 6 strikeouts. And as my colleague Ryan Davis noted on Twitter, this completes a run of nice Haren appearances:
As of this moment, Dan Haren's last 5 starts: 26.1 IP, 23 H, 6 BB, 21 K, 2.39 ERA Starts against Reds (2), Cardinals (2), and Phillies.
— Ryan Davis (@Ryan_Davis17) September 30, 2015
When he was brought in at the trade deadline, the reasonable expectation was that Haren would stabilize the back end of the Cubs’ rotation. He hasn’t always been brilliant, but he’s done that. And tonight, he was as good as he could reasonably be expected to be. And if that’s the end for Haren’s career, it’s a good way to go out: as a solid contributor to a winning club.
Bottom Play (WPA): The game’s relative lack of excitement meant that the bottom play—at least by WPA—came in the very first inning. Fowler had singled to lead off the game, and was immediately moved to second by a Schwarber walk, which brought Kris Bryant to the plate with a chance to drive in his 100th RBI of the season, thereby beating Rizzo to the mark in what’s become a friendly competition between the two Cubs’ sluggers. It wasn’t to be: Bryant struck out on three straight pitches (-0.055), the last of which was about a half-foot off the plate and outside. That’s a pitch Bryant has been pretty good at making contact with lately, which made his miss in this situation—with a man in scoring position—all the more surprising. Check out this chart from Brooks Baseball, which covers Bryant’s whiff rate in two-strike counts since August 15th:
Compare that chart, with its 0-for-31 in the bottom-right corner, to this one, which covers the first part of the season:
So whereas Bryant missed that pitch about 12 percent of the time before August 15th, he literally hasn’t missed it at all since then … except for tonight. Good for Josh Smith for going to the pitch there, then, and my condolences to Bryant on missing it. Go get ‘em next time, tiger.
Key Moment: Because this game never really felt out of hand for the Cubs, there aren’t a whole lot of high-leverage moments to describe in glorious detail here. Instead, I’ll talk about something fun: Anthony Rizzo joined the 30-30 club tonight! “The 30-30 club?” you cry, raising your head from your laptop or mobile device. “But he hasn’t stolen 30 bases yet!” And you’re right in that. Rizzo hasn’t swiped 30 bags yet. (And he’s unlikely to get there, either: entering play on Tuesday, he had just 17.) That doesn’t matter, though. In the first inning, Rizzo was hit in the leg by a Smith fastball, and thus earned his 30th beaning of the season, and making him only the second big-league player to hit 30 home runs and be hit 30 times in the same season (Don Baylor, 1986, was the other). The Cubs’ dugout beckoned frantically to get Rizzo the ball, and the man himself explained to a perplexed Joey Votto what the heck was going on. It was a fun moment:
.@ARizzo44’s now a member of the 30-30 club! That’s 30 HR and 30 HBP. #GetHimThatBall pic.twitter.com/eK2vEhe45U
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) September 30, 2015
Isn’t it more fun to play meaningless games that are meaningless because the Cubs are good? I think so.
Trend to Watch: Speaking of Rizzo, here’s a thing worth noting: .226/.355/.694. That’s Rizzo’s triple-slash line since September 11, not including Tuesday’s game. That’s not too concerning, because the OBP is pretty good (if low for Rizzo, this year) and the slugging is just fine. But coming as it does with Fowler (.211/.300/.282 over the same time period) and Schwarber (.167/.322/.375) in mini-slumps, you’ve got to be hoping that Jake Arrieta—and the rest of the Cubs’ pitching staff—bring their A-games to Pittsburgh, and beyond. That, or Rizzo, Fowler, and Schwarber can turn things around in time for the playoffs. Honestly, I think both are likely to happen—all three hitters have had decent approaches during their slumps—but that’s not to say it will happen. It is, for now, a trend to watch. So here it sits.
Coming Next: The Cubs will look to lock down win number 93 of their charmed season as Jon Lester (84 cFIP, 92 DRA-) will make what’s likely to be his final start of the regular season, facing off against the Reds’ Anthony DeSclafani (100, 90). Despite his generally excellent performance this season, Lester has suffered from the curse of high expectations—many fans expected him to be a franchise savior, and he’s been a very good pitcher instead—but then, maybe these Cubs didn’t need saving anyway. DeSclafani, who’s wrapping up his second big-league campaign, has been a reasonably solid performer for a pretty terrible Reds team. His last two starts, though, have been rough: On September 20th, he gave up four earned runs to the Brewers over just 4 1/3 innings; on September 25th, he gave up five to the Mets over 6 1/3. The loss to the Mets is somewhat more defensible, of course—they are a playoff team and have dominated National League pitching since the All-Star break—but I’m sure DeSclafani will be looking for a bit more against the Cubs on Wednesday. For their part, the Cubs will be looking to keep the pressure on the Pirates, who’ll play a doubleheader against the Cardinals starting earlier in the day, and continue to calibrate their roster for October 7th.
Lead photo courtesy David Kohl—USA Today Sports.