Top Play (WPA): The Cubs continued to cement their World Series contender status while racking up their win number 93—their fourth straight victory—a satisfying blowout of the lowly Reds. Interestingly, it took a few innings for the Cubs’ offense to get going, despite the lopsided final score.
The Reds actually had the edge in win expectancy through two outs in the Cubs’ half of the third inning, but Austin Jackson—getting the start in center field—didn’t allow that to last. Following a Jon Lester walk and another crisply hit Kyle Schwarber single to right, Jackson hit a long fly off the wall in right (+.257). Lester scored, and Schwarber slid into home just ahead of the relay throw (Jackson took third on the throw) to give the Cubs a 2-1 lead that they wouldn’t relinquish.
Bottom Play (WPA): A rally brewed for the Cubs in the fourth, with an Anthony Rizzo double followed by a Starlin Castro infield hit. Rizzo, probably preparing himself to run to third on Eugenio Suarez’s throw to first on Castro’s grounder, actually succeeded in faking out Suarez, who held onto the ball instead of throwing to first or flipping to Brandon Phillips at second to catch the cheating Rizzo.
Jorge Soler then stepped to the plate with an opportunity to break the game open, but he got jammed by Anthony DeSclafini, grounding into a double play to Suarez (-.096). The Cubs would plate Rizzo on an Addison Russell single, taking a 3-1 lead, but it was went down as a potentially big innings ending up with only one run crossing the plate.
Key Moment: Let’s talk about every Twitter trolls’ beloved $155 Million Dollar Arm.
Jon Lester became just the second Cubs lefty ever to strike out 200 batters in a season, blowing by Ken Holtzman’s previous Cubs record of 202 with his nine Ks on the day bringing his season total to 207. Should Lester have a productive tenure with the Cubs, he’s poised to be the best Cubs lefty since at least Holztman. He could even be the best Cubs’ southpaw since the illustrious Jim “Hippo” Vaughn, who spun a sterling 2.33 ERA (125 ERA+) and 35 shutouts from the left side in nine seasons with the Cubs in the Dead Ball Era. (One hopes that Lester does not meet the same fate that Vaughn did in a Kenosha tavern one night in 1921).
With that being said, Lester’s performance tonight was the stuff of a veteran in a playoff race. The Washingtonian allowed two hits in the first—a single to Tyler Holt and a double to Brandon Phillips—and then a looping fly to center off the bat of Jay Bruce, scoring Holt to give the Reds an early lead.
But Lester feasted on a weak Reds lineup the rest of the evening. After ending the first on a Suarez groundout, Lester allowed one baserunner over the next seven innings as he cruised through the eighth. Limiting the damage in the first inning to one run was the key to the game, as it allowed a slow starting Cubs offense the time to get to DeSclafani. It was the kind of game that Lester could have mailed in as a veteran on a team with a secured playoff spot, but he clamped down after that sac fly. Even though the Cubs sit two and a half games behind the Pirates for the top Wild Card spot, Lester turned in a gem of a start, capping off a great debut season in blue pinstripes.
With four games left in the season, Lester won’t get another start until the Division Series, should the Cubs make it there. Lester’s final tally: 205 innings pitches, 207 strikeouts, a 3.34 ERA, and a 3.94 DRA. Andrew Felper will have more details in his final “Ballad of Jon Lester” of the regular season.
Trend to Watch: This game could prove pivotal in the hopes of three Cubs vying for playoff playing time.
The first, Starlin Castro, has all but secured the starting spot at second base in the Wild Card game next Wednesday. He collected four hits in five tries on the night, including the aforementioned infield single and an RBI double. His big hit of the night was off of a hanging DeSclafani slider, a solo home run launched to the deepest part of Great American Ballpark. It was Castro’s 11th home run of the year, and his OPS sits at an almost passable .679 with four to play. He’s also leading the majors in batting average in September and has accumulated 1.2 fWAR over that period.
Oh, and he did this, a play reminiscent of his mirror image across the bag at shortstop. Having a shortstop’s arm at second base is sometimes useful. It’s likely Castro’s performance has relegated Javier Baez to prime bench option for the playoffs.
Austin Jackson, filling in for the resting Dexter Fowler in center field, amassed five RBI and three hits, including two doubles. With a crowded outfield of Fowler, Soler, Kyle Schwarber, and Chris Coghlan all worthy of starting, Jackson is on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff roster. He’s a better option than Chris Denorfia—awesome walkoff homers aside—because of his defense and neutral-ish platoon splits, but Joe Maddon has interesting preferences, so Jackson’s inclusion as the fifth outfielder in the Wild Card game is not a foregone conclusion. I suspect his impressive performance in this game will remind Maddon of his upside as he finalizes the roster with the front office.
Finally, Neil Ramirez. Ramirez has recovered admirably from a difficult disabled list-spotted year. In four appearances before this game, he had struck out four, walked none, and stranded all runners. Unfortunately, Ramirez did not look sharp in the ninth against the Reds, allowing a single, a walk, and two sac flies before securing the victory. Maddon will need reliable middle relief options if the Cubs are to make it beyond the Wild Card game, and Ramirez is unlikely to trump Fernando Rodney or perhaps even Carl Edwards, Jr., in the middle innings.
Coming Next: In the series finale in Cincinnati, the Cubs send Jason Hammel (3.86 ERA/4.54 DRA/92 cFIP) to the bump to face John Lamb (5.40/5.67/91). Hammel has been bad, with a 5.66 ERA and 1.89 HR/9 since the beginning of August, but he hopes to rebound and put himself in the conversation for a playoff start. As it is, he’s likely to find himself in the bullpen watching Kyle Hendricks start the second game of the Division Series if the Cubs win the Wild Card game.
With four to play, the Cubs sit two and a half back of Pittsburgh. The Pirates are idle Thursday, so the Cubs can gain a half game with a win. Pittsburgh plays Cincinnati at home over the weekend, against whom they are 6-10 on the year (2-4 at home). The Cubs travel to Milwaukee to face the Brewers. With a sweep, the Cubs have a solid chance of tying the Pirates for the Wild Card lead—and securing a home playoff game at Wrigley Field, due to their tiebreaker in head-to-head record.
Lead photo courtesy of David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports