This is The Beer List. It’s an opportunity, once every two weeks, for the staff here at BP Wrigleyville to get together (virtually, of course) and respond briefly to one small, usually quite open-ended, question. Despite the strenuous efforts of certain members of the writing crew to make it so, it has nothing to do with beer and is therefore agnostic between, for random example, Miller Light and Daisy Cutter. This week’s question is this: What player will be most essential for Cubs playoff success? Answers are in alphabetical order.
(1) Jake Arrieta. Look, offense has carried the Cubs to these heights, and the Cubs will live or die in the postseason based on whether they can hit very good pitching, or not. Never believe that pitching and defense win championships. Ball go far, team go far. Offense is more reliably correlated with success than any other element of the game. No single individual can carry an offense through the postseason, though. That’s not how baseball works. If you’re asking which player, in a short series, can have a greater impact on the chances of winning or losing than any other, the answer is invariable and unavoidable: it’s an ace starting pitcher. When the 162-game achievement that is this season is put on the line in a single game, that will be especially true. Arrieta is that ace, and he’ll be the one in charge of winning the coin toss for the 2015 Cubs’ lives.
Arrieta has thrown a lot of pitches lately. He’s far past his previous high in seasonal workload, and he’s being asked to keep pitching long after most hurlers would be gone from games. He might collapse under the strain of this much use. On the other hand, he might carry the Cubs to (or near) a title, the way Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee have notably done during the last several years. Whichever way things break, there’s no other player who can approximate the importance of Arrieta. —Matt Trueblood
(2) Kris Bryant. Ready for some arbitrary start-point fun? How about this: on August 2nd, the Cubs were 56-47 and fighting desperately to stay in contention for the second Wild Card spot. Kris Bryant’s season slash line stood at .242/.354/.436. Fast-forward eight weeks to this week, and the Cubs just clinched their first postseason berth in seven years by going 33-17 over those eight weeks. What was the catalyst for this surge? Well, how about Mr. Bryant slashing an absurd .341/.405/.622 in those games, alongside an unthinkable 27 extra-base hits? Bryant not only carried the Cubs to the postseason, he also likely earned some rookie hardware for his mantle.
If the Cubs are destined to play deep into October, they’ll need contributions from unlikely sources, as every team does. They’ll need Jake Arrieta to continue to pitch historically well. They’ll need Anthony Rizzo to stand and lead. They’ll need Starlin Castro to silence the doubters. They’ll need Kyle Schwarber to hit moon-shots and trip over bullpen mounds. But most of all, they’ll need Kris Bryant to further exhibit the brilliance he has shown in the waning summer days. —Isaac Bennett
(3) Dexter Fowler. Dexter Fowler, leadoff hitter, will be the most essential part of any Cubs playoff success. Fowler’s season thus far has been the classic “tale of two halves”: even though he got off an excellent start in April, slashing .299/.342/.442, he slumped badly in May and June. Fowler’s slash lines for those two months were .189/.293/.377 and .240/.286/.356, respectively—significantly worse, in otherwords. In fact, by the time June rolled around, his full-season numbers had dropped to .237/.324/.386; perhaps not coincidentally, the Cubs went 40-35 (.533) during that period, scoring just 3.95 runs per game.
Since July 1st, however, Fowler has increased his production significantly, and the Cubs’ fortunes have improved as well. He was on base a lot in July, combining 25 hits with 21 walks, and produced a slash line of .275/.411/.396 for the month, good for an OPS of .807. In August, he turned it on even more and started hitting for more power, posting an extremely impressive .298/.408/.587, which was good for a .995 OPS. Fowler has come back to Earth somewhat in September, posting a .225/.326/.375, but his numbers in the aggregate since July 1st are still a very solid .269/.386/.461. During the same time frame, the Cubs are 49-27 (.645), and are averaging 4.79 runs per game. Not a coincidence.
One small note of concern: Fowler has struggled at PNC Park, slashing just .158/.256/.237 with an OPS of .493 this season in 43 plate appearances. Dexter, as much as anyone, would probably like to play the Pirates at Wrigley Field. —Jeff Lamb
(4) Jason Hammel. As we’ve all seen with our own two eyes, it’s been a tale of two seasons for the Cubs’ rangy right-handed third starter, Jason Hammel. Between April 11th and July 3rd, Hammel—who could be the Cubs third starter in the playoffs—posted a solid 2.89 ERA with 104 K’s in 102 2/3 innings. But from that point through his Saturday start against Pittsburgh, Hammel’s been shaky. His ERA has skyrocketed up to 5.14, and his batting average against has gone from .212 up to .284. (The reason why is, of course, a different discussion, but this article’s preliminary hypothesis is that he’s been throwing more hittable fastballs and sliders.)
If Hammel can regain some of his first-half mojo, the Cubs have a good chance through the first three games of the playoffs. Otherwise, it’s Lester and Arrieta, then put on your sweater… because, uhhhh, it’s too cold to play. (I don’t know, you try to rhyme with “Arrieta.”) —Joel Reese
(5) Jon Lester. Jon Lester’s postseason experience knows no bounds, and when he was brought on board this past offseason at the lofty price tag of $155 million dollars, many argued that the dollars were worth paying for, among other things, his resume of postseason experience—experience which, surely, would dictate that Lester start a potential Wild Card game. But with the continued emergence of Jake Arrieta this season, it’s been all but written in stone that the fate of the Wild Card game will rest in the hands of Arrieta, and not be a rematch of Friday evening’s Lester vs. Gerrit Cole showdown.
The thing that most need to understand, however, is that Arrieta is in no way replacing Lester as the chosen postseason hero of 2015, he’s simply taking on a task of shorter duration to open the doors for Lester’s abilities to be manifested. What Lester brings to this postseason that many of the young fresh faces on this team (and even veterans on the club) do not have, is pockets full of wisdom and knowledge on how to handle the pressures of October. He and David Ross are quite familiar with playing games on crisp fall days at historic ballparks under the tutelage of the Theo Epstein regime.
Let’s face it, Lester isn’t exactly someone you’re going to be disappointed with starting a game of postseason play for your team (let’s just forget a couple of those recent ugly starts and remember the incredible ones). Lester will be able to teach this clubhouse valuable lessons about playing this great game during its greatest time of the year, and though Arrieta is out on the mound doing things that are unfair to hitters of the baseball every start this season, the wisdom of a veteran should never be underrated. —Cat Garcia
(6) Miguel Montero. The leftover fuzzy feelings from Arrieta’s Sunday night start are sure to inspire hope that, maybe, the Cubs can get out of the Wild Card round after all. It’s no longer a reckless dream, even considering the monolithic task that lies before them in defeating Gerrit Cole and a very good Pirates team. So let’s entertain this fantasy: what happens if the Cubs advance and find themselves in the NLDS having burned Arrieta? The Cubs will use Lester in the opener and will have to get creative in Game Two. That’s where Montero comes in. Montero was acquired in part for his ability to frame pitches and earn extra calls for his pitchers. Outside of some shaky blocking ability, Montero is a solid and dependable catcher who has had a positive impact on two sides of the ball. If the Cubs find themselves playing deep into the autumn, Montero’s efforts will have both an active and passive effect on the team. Montero’s ability to control a pitching staff and get some calls for his pitchers might be a big difference maker come Game Two of the NLDS. —Mauricio Rubio, Jr.
(7) Anthony Rizzo. The player most essential to the Cubs’ playoff success will be Anthony Rizzo. The four other teams headed to the NL postseason tournament have allowed the fewest runs per game in the majors, and finding a way to scratch out some runs will be critical. Rizzo is the Cubs’ best hitter, and it’s awfully difficult to win in the postseason without big performances from your best. So far, he leads the club with a .997 OPS against teams with winning records, ahead of Kris Bryant’s .947 and then Chris Denorfia’s .742. The Cubs have gone 29-23 against their playoff foes, and in those 29 wins, Rizzo has slashed .386/.508/.653. If they manage to get by Gerrit Cole in the wild card game, Rizzo has been even better in wins against the Cardinals, with a slash line of .458/.588/.958 in eight victories. Runs are likely to be scarce this postseason, and making sure that the biggest cog in the lineup is performing at the highest level will be vital. —Michael Wenz
(8) David Ross. Call me crazy, but I think David Ross is going to be most essential to the Cubs’ success in the playoffs. Oh sure, you could argue for Arrieta, but what fun is that? Ross has started 44 games behind the plate this season, and in those games the Cubs’ pitching staff has only allowed 3.02 runs per game. To be fair, it’s a skewed sample, as he’s mostly caught Jon Lester and Arrieta this year, but it’s still significant when you consider other factors.
The Cubs are 28-16 in his starts (.636 win percentage) and 62-49 in all other games (.558). When compared to Miguel Montero behind the plate, it’s no contest. Montero may be great at framing pitches—something that Ross does well also—but Ross is a better defender in nearly every measurable way. Despite catching Lester, who couldn’t keep runners at first base to save his life early this year, Ross has thrown out 25.7 percent of attempted base stealers while Montero hovers right around 20 percent. According to defensive runs saved, Ross has saved five runs in his meager 384 1/3 innings while Montero has been worth -2 runs saved in his 787 innings behind the plate. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Ross get the bulk of the starts in the playoffs, if the Cubs are to make it beyond the wild card game. If the Cubs are going to have any success in the postseason, you can bet that David Ross is going to be a huge part of it. —Ryan Davis
(9) Pedro Strop. Hector Rondon and Strop are the lynchpins of the Cubs bullpen. Each of their walk and strikeout rates have stayed consistent over the past two seasons, and their overall numbers have been very good. One key difference between the two, however, is what makes Strop the hinge upon which the Cubs’ playoff hopes will turn. Rondon has consistently performed very well in high-leverage situations—even those outside of the traditional closer’s role—to the tune of 2.84 Win Probability Added, good for 18th among pitchers with 50 innings pitched, while Strop has put up a mere 0.71, worse than last year’s 1.61, and landing him all the way down at 92nd.
Three of Strop’s bottom six outings in terms of WPA come against his the kryptonitic Cardinals, a likely playoff opponent. In other words, there’s room for improvement. And the good news? His September 19th outing against the Cardinals was his highest WPA performance all season, as he closed out a nail biter of a 5-4 victory. Joe Maddon is going to need more of that Strop if he’s to call on the righty in the late innings of the Wild Card game, or we might see more Fernando Rodney than we could have ever imagined. —Zack Moser
(10) Travis Wood. Will Travis Wood be the player most crucial to the Cubs postseason success? Over the course of an entire month (which is how long the Cubs hope the postseason will be for them), it’s unlikely that he will be more valuable than Arrieta, Bryant, or Rizzo, but for one game, one batter, or one (or two) innings, he could absolutely be the most crucial. Wood’s versatility, dominance against lefties, and two outstanding pitches all make him vital to the Cubs playoff run.
Since moving to the bullpen, he has gone to four-seam and cut fastballs on nearly 80 percent of all pitches, with opposing hitters slugging .280 combined. Left-handed batters have not fared well against Wood the reliever, either, slugging just .267 against Wood’s four-seam fastball; in fact, Wood has allowed just four extra-base hits to lefties. Overall, left-handers are managing just .240/.307/.312 against him, with a 28.6 percent strikeout rate.
And Wood has just gotten better as the season has progressed. In the second half, he has posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.97 FIP, .610 OPS against, and 32.9 percent strikeout rate, despite a .378 BABIP allowed. And in nine September appearances, he’s posted a 0.79 ERA, 0.794 WHIP, and an absurd 46.5 percent strikeout rate. Travis Wood: Postseason MVP? Unlikely. But if the Cubs embark on a deep playoff run, expect Wood to be crucial. —Andrew Felper
“If Hammel can regain some of his first-half mojo, the Cubs have a good chance through the first three games of the playoffs. Otherwise, it’s Lester and Arrieta, then put on your sweater…” —Joel Reese …’cause it ain’t gonna get no betta.