The Cubs’ offense often explodes early in the game, bludgeoning opposing starters and instilling fear into pitchers of the National League. On nights that they don’t hang a crooked number early, they are a slow burn offense; Tuesday’s chilly, windy night against Brewers’ ace Jimmy Nelson was an example of the latter. Nelson mixed his pitches well, a good exhibition of his strong and varied arsenal, and the Cubs failed to tally a hit until Kris Bryant’s double just inside the third base line in the fourth.
Top Play (WPA): Nelson’s pitch count mounted, however, as the Cubs ground out long plate appearances and two long innings in the fifth and sixth. The nagging got to Nelson in the sixth, when Bryant reached on a squib error to third and Ben Zobrist walked to put two on with one out. Brewers manager Craig Counsell called on Carlos Torres to relieve Nelson, probably a batter too late considering Nelson’s struggles against left-handed hitters. Torres got Jorge Soler to fly out, but failed to do the same with Addison Russell: the broad-shouldered shortstop drilled a flyball to right-center, out of the reach of Milwaukee’s outfielders, plating both runners, and planting Russell on third with a triple (+.286). The Cubs wouldn’t look back after taking a 3-1 lead.
Bottom Play (WPA): Victory appeared to be at hand for the Cubs going into the eighth. The night was cold, the Brewers’ bats looked colder, and the Cubs’ bullpen came into the game fresh. However, Pedro Strop struggled mightily that inning against the bottom of the order, walking Aaron Hill to lead off the frame and unwinding a wild pitch to put him on second. Another free pass to Colin Walsh brought up both pinch-hitter Ryan Braun and a sense of dread. That feeling proved appropriate, as Braun lined a double down the right-field line, scoring both runners, and bringing the score within one (-.165). Strop got one more strikeout before Joe Maddon tapped Travis Wood, who promptly ended the inning with a popup.
Key Moment: Although Nelson has struggled against lefties—his weighted multi-year TAv versus lefties is .306—he stymied the Cubs’ lefty sluggers this cold Tuesday evening, the key factor in his success through the first five innings in this game. As such, it was imperative that the Cubs seize the opportunity in the fifth to score at least a run and knot the game at one. Jorge Soler walked to lead off the inning, in an impressive plate appearance versus the type of pitcher against whom he should succeed, and Russell followed with a sharp single through the hole into left—the Cubs’ second hit of the night.
David Ross then squared to bunt. Joe Maddon’s call for the sacrifice perhaps telegraphed his next move, which was to pull Kyle Hendricks after five strong innings and pinch-hit with Tommy La Stella. Ross laid down a nice bunt, moving the runners to second and third. La Stella walked, and Dexter Fowler hit a long fly to right-center that would have gone out on most nights, scoring Soler.
Maddon’s bold move to pull Hendricks marks somewhat of a departure from his past tactics in similar situations. Hendricks is the perfect candidate to pull before a third time through the order, however, and with the incredibly well-rested Cubs bullpen (coming into the game, they had the fewest innings of any relief corps), Maddon could count on Adam Warren to soak up two innings of work and bridge the gap to Pedro Strop. It was a strong procedural move that paid off, and Maddon might be more willing to pinch-hit early in the future.
Trend to Watch: Speaking of Warren: the offseason trade acquisition has been near-perfect in eight innings so far this year. In this one, he faced the minimum six hitters and recorded three strikeouts, helping to cement the Cubs’ lead. Warren’s changeup has been his best pitch, even though it’s his third-most frequently thrown—batters haven’t put it in play for a hit yet. He’s struck out eight, and given up two hits and a lone run on the season, and will be an indispensable part of the club this season.
It was the Cubs’ first two-inning relief appearance of the season, which is mostly a function of the starters’ early dominance. With Warren, Trevor Cahill, Clayton Richard, and Travis Wood all capable of multiple innings, we should see more multi-inning appearances as the season wears on, starters hit rough patches and fatigue, and other bullpen arms need rest.
The Cubs’ bench also came to play. La Stella, Javier Baez, and Matt Szczur combined for two hits, a walk, and a very nice slide—key on a night in which runs were at a premium. This is, of course, by design: the front office made their offseason acquisitions with depth and versatility in mind, displacing last year’s replacement-level players (Jonathan Herrera, Mike Baxter, etc.) with solid and/or high upside players. It’s nice to see the strategy pay off.
Coming Next: Brewers writer Travis Sarandos summed up Wednesday’s matchup in two words, only one of which is printable here on the esteemed pages of BP Wrigleyville. Jake Arrieta (0.87 ERA, 26 strikeouts in 31 innings) follows up his second no-hitter in eleven regular season starts against Taylor Jungmann (8.47, 11 strikouts in 17 innings), who has averaged just over four innings per start this year. Wednesday will be similarly cool at Wrigley Field, and the Brewers lineup is generally unthreatening, so one can dream on the possibilities for Arrieta.
Miguel Montero sat out Tuesday’s game with a stiff back, and Maddon says he’s day-to-day, so look for Ross to catch Arrieta. Of course, Ross caught the no-hitter in Cincinnati, so Arrieta might have preferred Grandpa Ross anyway. The Cubs look for a series win against their division rivals, and a win to keep pace with their crosstown counterparts—the White Sox pace the American League with 15, and the Cubs sit atop the National League with the same. Chicago baseball is fun! Soothe those fresh hockey wounds with a Jake Arrieta start, 7:05 Central.
Lead photo courtesy Dennis Wierzbicki—USA Today Sports
Good recap imo