Sometimes the other guy just beats you. And sometimes that guy is Wade Miley, so he gets super close, he confounds everyone (hitters, fans, umpires, himself), he blows the lead, and then his team wins anyway. Normal stuff, really. “The Instant Replay Game” turned on a few bad pitches from Cubs’ hurlers, and, in the end, the Cubs lost one of their most frustrating games of the season.
Top Play (WPA): A tense seventh inning, in which the Cubs scored their only run, gave way to a stressful, and ultimately dreadful, eighth. Jake Arrieta, who rivaled Miley pound for pound (details below), walked Mike Zunino and Shawn O’Malley to lead off the inning, as he crossed the century mark in pitches, and Joe Maddon tapped his new bullpen fireman, Hector Rondon, to escape the jam.
The bunt was on, and Luis Sardinas executed well enough to put Mariners on second and third. With Norichi Aoki and the top of the order due up, it was a perilous situation for the Cubs, but Rondon induced a groundball to Kris Bryant at third, who fired home to Miguel Montero, who tagged Guillermo Heredia for the inning’s second out (+.215). It was the third instant replay of the game, all on plays at home, and the only one confirming the call on the field.
Bottom Play (WPA): Then it all fell apart. Maddon called upon Aroldis Chapman for a potential inning-plus save.
An aside: if you haven’t already, and have the means, you should donate to an anti-domestic violence organization whenever Chapman records a save for the Cubs. Our own Caitlin Swieca spearheaded the idea, and over $1000 have been donated already. You can find more information in the following places:
https://twitter.com/pitchin4dvhttps://twitter.com/pitchin4dv
https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20160729/wrigleyville/when-chapman-gets-save-this-woman-donates-anti-domestic-violence
Chapman promptly conceded a hard double to the left-center field wall to fellow Cuban Leonys Martín, scoring both Mariners baserunners (-.496). Martín then stole second, and scored on a wild pitch without even a play at the plate (-.105). Chapman’s disastrous outing won’t show up in the box score in the saves column, but consider donating to a local anti-DV organization regardless.
Key Moment: After those six hitless innings from the usually erratic Miley, the Cubs put pressure on with some small ball tactics. A leadoff walk to Dexter Fowler boded well for the Cubs with the heart of the order due up (sans Anthony Rizzo, who got the afternoon off), and Kris Bryant quickly fell behind Miley 1-2 after two foul balls. Miley blew a fastball up and in on Bryant, setting up his changeup, but Bryant anticipated the opposing starters’ plan: the slugger hooked the change into center field, putting runners on first and second with no one out.
Joe Maddon then kicked off a series of set plays, asking Ben Zobrist to bunt the runners over. The Cubs’ impotence against Miley superseded Zobrist’s recent bounce back at the plate from a post-All-Star Game slump, and Zobrist laid down a soft, successful bunt in front of home plate.
The Mariners’ infield crept in on the grass, eager to catch Fowler at home on a groundball. Javier Baez toed the batter’s box opposite Miley, and flailed at a few well-placed pitches before he topped a grounder to the shortstop, Shawn O’Malley. The Cubs have been burned on the “contact play” several times this season already, but Fowler bolted home, narrowly avoiding the tag on a call confirmed after a difficult replay review. The Cubs took a one-run lead.
Addison Russell struck out, but the climax of the inning came on the next play. With runners on first and third, and a pickoff-happy Miley all too ready to check on Baez at first, the Cubs once again indulged in some creative play: Russell took a large lead from first, and, behind Miley’s back, Bryant inched toward home with third baseman Kyle Seager off the bag. Russell drew the throw to first, and Bryant broke for home. Adam Lind rifled to Zunino, and Bryant slid feet-first into home, initially called safe. After another replay review, the umpire crew called Bryant out, ending the inning and the rally.
Trend to Watch: To wash the bad taste out of our mouths, let’s recount Arrieta’s dominant afternoon.
Arrieta faced 26 hitters, giving up only the two runs scoring on Chapman after he departed the game. His four strikeouts and three walks look pedestrian, but they belie seven innings of great pitching. He attacked hitters with his fastball up in the zone, before moving down with his breaking ball to get groundballs. Mariners hitters found the ground 12 times, and struggled to make loud contact against the ace. The Cubs turned a double play on a key grounder off the bat of the threatening Robinson Canó in the fourth, stopping a potential rally in its tracks.
The scorer will hang Arrieta with the loss, and the Cubs have not won an Arrieta start in nearly two months, but the eye test suggests that Arrieta is trending upward.
Coming Next: Brian Matusz will make his Cubs debut on Sunday, squaring off with former Mariners great Felix Hernandez. Read more about Matusz’s story here, with Isaac Bennett, and about his evolving pitch selection. Hernandez is only two seasons removed from a 1.64 DRA and 9.2 pitching WARP, but this year he sports a 4.05 DRA and a plummeting 6.9 percent strikeout rate. It will be hard to not feel hungover going into Sunday’s game, considering the outcome of this one, but the Cubs will hopefully rebound and begin a new winning streak, with the Cardinals clipping their heels in the standings. The game is nationally televised on ESPN at 7pm CDT.
Lead photo courtesy Dennis Wierzbicki—USA Today Sports