Second City October: NLCS Game One Preview, Cubs (0-0) vs. Dodgers (0-0)

All throughout the melodic mayhem that was game five of the NLDS between the Dodgers and the Nationals on Thursday evening, there was a strange part of me that wanted this to happen. I didn’t care how the Dodgers did it, and obviously, neither did Dave Roberts. I just wanted the Cubs to face the Dodgers.

There was some calculation that went into that decision on my end, however no matter how you sliced it, the Cubs would be facing a decent offense, a top two bullpen, and a rotation that included either Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer.

The difference between that last part was incremental, but when it comes to games one, everything down the most minuscule details matters — especially in the mind of a Cubs fan. So the difference between the wanting the Cubs to face either the Dodger or the Nationals became would fans rather see Lester vs. Scherzer in game one of the NLCS at Wrigley Field this weekend, or would they rather see Lester vs. Some-starter-not-named-Kershaw in game one?

Historically since 1995, the winner of game one in the LCS went on to win the series 62.5 percent of the time. However, the team with the better regular season record went on to win that series 70.6 percent of the time, which in turn could negate the first fact in this case.

But let’s focus on the game one winner part here. Now Lester vs. Starter-not-named-Kershaw sounds a little bit better, doesn’t it?

The Pitching Matchup: Jon Lester vs. Kenta Maeda

The Cubs got the lucky end of the bargain this season when it came to facing the Dodgers. In 2016, the Cubs didn’t face Kershaw, Maeda or Hill at all. So facing Madea, who is a fresh face in the MLB in general after making his major league debut in 2016, could end up being a whole bag of goodies.

Never having faced Maeda could prove to be a negative for most teams, but knowing the way that the Cubs attacks opposing pitchers with their strong contact skills (77 percent contact rate) and patient plate approach (10.4 percent walk rate, highest in MLB), this could end up being an added benefit for the North siders.

Hold that thought though. Let’s take a look at Maeda’s numbers on the season for just a second before we jump for joy.

Alright, still looks good. Maeda strikes out a lot of batters, in fact he strikes out a whole quarter of the batters he faces, while only walking 7 percent. So perhaps the Cubs plate approach won’t make this a cakewalk for them — after all, there is a reason Maeda is starting game one, the Dodgers clearly see him as the second best option behind an unavailable Kershaw. But the one thing to take note of is something that has been aiding the Cubs all October, Maeda has a penchant for giving up home runs. Bingo, we have found a component that the Cubs can work to exploit this evening. Maeda has given up 20 home runs this season in 175 innings of work, leading him to an 11.8 percent HR/FB rate — good for just above the average rate at which pitchers with a minimum of 175 innings were surrendering.

Maeda’s ERA, FIP, and DRA all differ by just a few points, indicating that what you see is pretty much what you’ll get with him. A pitcher who pitches to around a 3.50 ERA and has a weakness for giving up long balls. Sounds okay to me.

As for Lester, this is what he was signed to that large free agent contract for. After pitching to a career best 2.44 ERA this season, Lester has been going deeper into games, striking out the fourth highest percentage of batters he has in his career, and stranding runners at an unprecedented 84.9 percent rate. Unsustainable? Yes. But we’ll talk about that another time.

During game one of the NLDS against the Giants, Lester pitched his longest postseason outing of his career, going 8 strong frames while allowing no earned runs and striking out five batters. He’ll need to go as deep as he can in this game in order to help preserve the bullpen for the remainder of the series — especially game three should we see Bad Control Arrieta. Lester’s postseason ERA now stands at 2.63, just slightly higher than his ERA was this season. Lester is on his game this postseason, and there’s no reason for it to stop now.

Here are the offensive stats the Dodgers were rolling out during the season:

TAv, an all encompassing measure of offensive abilities, seems to like the Dodgers quite a bit. But when you break down each aspect of offense, the Dodgers have their weak spots and Lester will certainly know how to exploit them. These Dodgers like to strike out, boasting the 10th highest clip in baseball, but they also like to walk. Good thing Lester has that absurdly high strand rate and strikes a lot of guys out, right?

What to Watch For

I can’t stress this enough — Kenley Jansen. Look for his arm to be falling off in the visitor bullpen this weekend. No, maybe not that drastic. However, Jansen will be coming off his career longest relief appearance, throwing 51 pitches, something he has never done before while only being on two days of rest. This could put somewhat of a damper on a Dodger bullpen that has already been struggling as of late.

As I mentioned earlier — look for perhaps a few runs to be scored via deposits into the bleachers in this whole series, but specifically in game one given Maeda’s tendency to surrender long balls like they’re free candy on Halloween. Perhaps another Javy Baez bomb to break a long and crushing 0-0 tie late in the game? Only time will tell.

Keep an eye on Maddon’s bullpen usage during this game as well, it’s been well recognized that he’s been doing some, creative, for lack of a better word, things lately. Hector Rondon made the NLCS roster after a poor performance and questionable health during the end of the season and the NLDS, but with an array of options including a well rested Carl Edwards Jr. and newly added Rob Zastryzny, Cubs fans should hope that he would be used in lower leverage situations (is there such a thing in the playoffs?) and for shorter periods of time.

Lead photo courtesy Gary A. Vasquez–USA Today Sports.