No Cub is going to generate as much discussion than our very own Greek god Jake Arrieta. Not only are we not totally sure what Arrieta is going to provide this season, or how we’re going to feel about it, but he’s also headed into free agency. So along with his performance—whatever it might end up being—we’re going to get speculation and rumors and innuendo about what he wants to sign, whether he’ll sign, where he might want to go, probably a trade rumor or two depending on how other things go… and that will go along with your wife/girlfriend/boyfriend showing you his workout pictures and wondering why you don’t look like that sending you to your first pilates class where you find that pilates classes are actually really hard and you’ll hurt for days after and… well, let’s not let this get too far away from us.
But, for all of this, there’s probably an important thing to remember about Arrieta. His 2016 season was more than fine.
Sure, it wasn’t perfect like his 2015 was. His ERA was nearly 4.00 in the second half. His DRA jumped over a run. His walk rate nearly doubled and his strikeout rate dropped. I get it. Some of it was a precipitous drop. Still, 4.5 WARP is hardly anything worth apologizing for, and makes for a very solid #2 starter, which is what Arrieta ended up being. And two wins in the World Series certainly puts a nice gloss on it, kind of like the gloss on his abs that your wife/girlfriend/boyfriend keep showing you and wondering… well, you know how that ends.
The reasons why Arrieta couldn’t find the plate as consistently flowed like Gibby Haynes’s avalanche coming down the mountain, but this piece from Jeff Sullivan is kind of my favorite when it came to ascertaining the cause. Because watching Arrieta, it did look like he was reaching back in a way he didn’t the year before. Like he needed to max out more. This caused an imbalance and a rushing of his delivery at times.
So why might that be? Well, it might seem pretty simplistic, but sometimes some things are as simple as they seem. From 2014 to 2015, Arrieta had a 63-inning increase in workload, and that’s if we include his 20 innings in the minors rehabbing from an injury. Tack on another 19.2 innings in the playoffs, and you can see where an issue might arise.
It becomes clearer when you see that over the past ten years, only three pitchers have had even a 50-inning increase from one year to the next. One was Rick Porcello last year, so we have no idea what will result for him this season (although I’d have a pretty fair guess, which would anger Red Sox fans, and seeing as how I went to school in Boston I already have enough of those on my case every day). A.J. Burnett did it from 2007 to 2008, which you’ll be shocked to hear was his free agent year. The following season, after signing with the Yankees, Burnett saw a 2.6 drop in his WARP, and an increase in his DRA from 3.14 to 4.13. It doesn’t get much better when Burnett was two seasons removed from his jump in innings, which is what Arrieta will be entering this year. His K/9 dropped by a full strikeout, and his DRA ballooned to 5.06. He was essentially replacement-level. Yikes.
The only other pitcher to do it recently was David Price from 2013 to 2014. The following season however, Price saw an increase in his WARP from 5.8 to 6.2 and his DRA dropped from 2.94 to 2.73. So the fatigue from that increased workload didn’t effect him much. When he was two seasons removed from the huge increase in workload, which was last season, Price saw little change in his K/9, BB/9, but he was hit slightly harder (TAv went from .227 to .243) which saw his DRA rise from 2.73 to 3.33.
It’s not much of a sample size really. When we look at pitchers who had an increase of 40 innings from one year to the next and then how they did in the following seasons, Adam Wainwright saw an increase of DRA from 2.56 to 2.78 and then he got hurt the following season. So that’s… not encouraging. And he was the same age as Arrieta during this time. CC Sabathia saw his innings jump over 40 from 2006 into 2007. 2008 saw him basically become an MVP candidate as the Brewers started him 187 times and he put up an 8.0 WARP season. The following year, two removed from the huge jump in innings, his DRA went from 2.68 to 2.93. But he was never the same after that. And he was just in his late-20s.
Chris Carpenter saw an increase of 43 innings from 2009 to 2010. In 2011, his DRA actually dropped from 2010, but then the following year he got hurt and was never heard from again. However, Carpenter was around 35 at this time, older than Arrieta. Cole Hamels had a similar increase from 2007 to 2008. His DRA increased in 2009 from 3.62 to 3.81, but he was able to even out in the seasons following. But he was in his mid-20s at the time. Doug Fister saw an increase of the same from 2010 to 2011, the latter campaign saw him have a 3.04 DRA and a 5.3 WARP. He’s never put up a season below 3.60 DRA or above 3.5 WARP again.
Zack Greinke was 29 when he jumped from 171 innings in 2011 to 212 in 2012. The following season he dropped from 5.5 WARP to 3.9, though his DRA went from 2.96 to 3.13. The next year he put up 4.3 WARP and a 3.10 DRA, and of course he had his near-Cy Young season the one following that. And then he was pretty average last season.
From what it appears, the kind of jump that Arrieta had in innings from ’14-’15 takes more than one season to clear the cobwebs, even if you’re a Greek god and your wife/girlfriend/boyfriend keeps showing you his workout pictures and asking…
Anyway, all thatt might not leave us with an optimistic or even very clear picture of what to expect, and it ultimately leaves me wondering if we’re just not going to get the same, kinda-almost-there-but-kinda-frustrating Arrieta this season. Which hey, brings his asking price down?
Lead photo courtesy Matt Kartozian—USA Today Sports
Wow. That makes so much sense. thanks.