Top Play (WPA): Starlin Castro donned the newly-minted victory bucket after lacing a game-winning single past Kristopher Negron in left, his second walk-off single in as many nights (.313). The line drive scored Chris Coghlan, who had previously sliced a double that tipped off of Negron’s glove, nearly slipping past him to the wall (.117). Castro has been showing signs of life lately, collecting three hits in the game and seemingly hitting the ball with more authority. His first single was of the infield variety, but he inside outed a 2-0 pitch to right for his second hit of the night.
Bottom Play (WPA): Three of Sunday night’s four most negatively weighted plays occurred in the top of the ninth with Jason Motte, harboring a good scoreless innings streak, on the mound. Tasked with retiring the middle of the Reds’ order, Motte promptly conceded a single to Joey Votto (.082) and a double to Todd Frazier to the deepest part of the park (.243). Dexter Fowler played the double off of the wall well, however, stalling Votto at third instead of allowing the first baseman to score.
After an intentional walk to Jay Bruce to load the bases, Motte induced a Brayan Peña fly out (-.124), struck out Eugenio Suarez looking (-.183), and ended the threat with a Negron fly to center (-.163). In a rare moment of lucidity, the ESPN booth noted that Motte was overthrowing (i.e. throwing as hard as possible with abandon), although he escaped with his scoreless streak intact. Motte’s resurgence as a quality bullpen arm has helped steady the rocking boat of a bullpen the club has experienced so far this year. Carrying fourteen pitchers is simply unsustainable, so Motte and co. will have to find ways to seal wins with fewer reinforcements as the season wears on.
Key Moment: Reds manager Bryan Price inexplicably left all-world closer Aroldis Chapman on the bench for the duration of the game, most curiously tapping righty Burke Badenhop for both the 10th and 11th to face the meat of the Cubs’ order. Chapman gathered dust on the bench Saturday night as well. Unless the two pitches Chapman uncorked past the bullpen catcher (one of which plunked first base umpire Ron Kulpa on the elbow) meant tiredness or injury, it seems that Price left his best chance to keep the game tied sitting down the right-field line.
The night’s other interesting development was the abundance of replay review. After a nearly four minute review on Saturday night, Sunday’s three plays subjected to review resulted in overturned calls with relative swiftness.
Pivotal was the review in the top of the sixth. Billy Hamilton doubled and stole third (.098 and .058), Brandon Phillips—returning from a groin injury—singled to put the Reds ahead 1-0 (.059), and Votto stepped to the plate. Lester missed his spot badly on a 2-1 pitch, serving a fastball middle-in to the dangerous lefty, and Votto deposited it short of the left-center field wall. The injured Phillips raced from first to home and Coghlan overran the ball as it hopped off the wall. The left fielder hit cut-off man Castro, Castro rifled a throw to catcher David Ross, and Ross applied the tag to Phillips’ left arm as he slid. Initially ruled safe, replay concluded that Phillips’ hand did not touch home before Ross tagged his arm, keeping the score at 1-0 (-.013).
Joe Maddon smartly challenged this play and also a sixth inning Coghlan liner down the right field line that appeared to hit the foul line, knowing that after the inning all reviews would come from the crew chief for the remainder of the game.
Trend to Watch: Castro’s 2015 struggles at the plate are well documented, and his power had been all but sapped from his stroke in the season’s first months. His game-tying home run Friday raised his total to five on the season, a tick down from the good power production last year that preceded his season-ending injury. As Mauricio Rubio noted in the aforementioned piece, his impotence at the plate largely stems from a tendency to weakly hit grounders to the left side off of pitches on the outer part of the plate. Clearly, Castro had a huge weekend, and one can only hope that his recent late-inning success leads to a more sound approach. Jorge Soler should return soon, but the Cubs’ offense looks much better with a clicking Castro.
Lester snuck his ERA back under four with seven innings of one-run, no-walk baseball, a great rebound after two ugly starts in Miami and Detroit. Andrew Felper, who has been analyzing each of Lester’s starts in his “Ballad of Jon Lester” series, attributed those poor outings to Lester’s lack of fastball control and his curveball’s resulting loss in effectiveness. Sunday, Lester spotted his four-seamer and cutter well, pairing good fastball accuracy with eighteen curveballs. He managed no innings over 20 pitches against the Reds, better than his previous three starts which each featured innings of 30+, and totaled a modest 96 pitches on the night.
Coming Next: Ohio’s National League squad departs as the state’s AL outfit arrives for a four-game interleague set. The Indians currently sit in fourth in a whacky AL Central and the Cubs will luckily miss reigning AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. Monday, it’s Jake Arrieta (3.16 ERA/78 cFIP/3.42 DRA) versus mercurial young righty Trevor Bauer (3.53/97/2.54) at 7:05. The Cubs’ playoff percentage keeps rising (68.66% following Sunday’s win) and a good series against one of the league’s underperforming clubs could push it even higher.
Lead photo courtesy of Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports