Photo courtesy of Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Top Play (WPA): Tsuyoshi Wada cruised through the first three innings of his 2015 debut, striking out eight of the first ten batters he faced while working quickly and efficiently. In the fourth, he served up a one out single to Derek Norris (.035), and the Padres’ most dangerous hitter, Justin Upton, stepped to the plate. The Cubs’ lefty tossed an 89 mph fastball over the heart of the plate, and Upton pounced. With full extension of his arms, the younger Upton brother hit a moon shot deep into the San Diego night, pausing an instant to watch his go-ahead homer (.340). More on Wada later.
Bottom Play (WPA): Neither team led by more than one run all night. Hector Rondon came on to face the bottom of the Padres’ order, successfully guarding the Cubs’ 3-2 lead on the way to the team’s 22nd victory. With two outs and a runner on third, Rondon spun a hard slider and induced a swing-and-miss from Abraham Almonte. Almonte’s sprint to first ended in vain, however, as Miguel Montero corralled the ball in the dirt and fired to Anthony Rizzo for the out (-.132).
Key Moment: Having thrown only 69 pitches through 4 2/3, some on Twitter speculated that Joe Maddon pulled the plug on the 34-year-old starter too early, considering the Cubs’ bullpen woes this year. Maddon concluded that the hard contact given up by Wada over the previous few batters and his documented weakness against the lineup a third time through meant that it was time to go to the ‘pen. Wada’s success as a starter is contingent on his unique clustering of pitches with similar velocities but disparate movements, as Rian Watt has recently detailed, so familiarity more adversely affects Wada than other pitchers with better stuff.
Justin Grimm has continued his success from 2014 in his short stint with the club so far this year, emerging as Maddon’s best middle reliever option. He entered the game with two outs and runners on first and second, unloading a wild pitch and walking a batter before striking out Matt Kemp to end the Padres’ threat (-.118). He went on to toss a scoreless sixth, helping to bridge the gap to Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon that grew large due to the prematurely evacuated Wada.
Over the past two seasons, Grimm’s slider has become his wipeout pitch, supplanting the curveball he had thrown for Ks earlier in his career. He’s paired the slight usage change with the significant velocity gain resulting from his transition from starting to relieving, and it has paid dividends. I wrote nine games ago of Grimm’s potential to improve the bullpen, and he has proven a steadying force in the time since.
Trend to Watch: The bullpen might finally see some stability, with healthy and more flexible arms finally comprising the relief corps. Travis Wood’s move to the ‘pen gives the Cubs two long relievers (Wood and Edwin Jackson), two lefty specialists (Zac Rosscup and James Russell), and three successful right-handers to nail down the back end (Grimm, Strop, Rondon). The key to the bullpen’s success going forward appears to be hard-throwing righty Jason Motte, who posted a scoreless inning in Wednesday’s win.
After a down season velocity-wise in 2014, Motte has improved all of his pitches as April turned into May this year. As a fastball/cutter pitcher, it’s imperative that he maintain that velocity.
Leadoff man Dexter Fowler sparked the Cubs’ pivotal fifth with a triple down the right field line, scoring a hustling Wada, who slid in just prior to the tag at home (.263). Padres catcher Derek Norris set up on the outer half of the plate, but Tyson Ross threw a fastball in; Fowler turned on the pitch and ripped a grounder past a diving Yangervis Solarte.
Fowler’s height and lankiness causes the switch-hitter difficulty with inside pitches from the left side of the plate, but this season he has improved slightly on pitches in, like the one he ripped for the triple. Defensive metrics still can’t make heads or tails of him, but his OBP and speed combo at the top of the order set the table well for Kris Bryant and Rizzo.
Two stray notes: Is it me, or does Junior Lake look incredibly comfortable and patient at the plate this year? His walk in this one was very impressive. It’s a shame he’ll likely be squeezed out by Javier Baez, Matt Sczcur, Arismendy Alcantara, or even Kyle Schwarber.
Also, this. It keeps happening.
Coming Next: The Cubs hope to abscond to Arizona with a series win, as Kyle Hendricks (4.98 DRA/3.93 FIP/5.15 ERA) faces off against Odrisamer Despaigne (4.66/5.35/6.75). The Cardinals’ league-pacing 27 wins leave the Cubs 4.5 games behind in the division, but Chicago holds the NL Wild Card lead with the Mets, just ahead of the surging Giants. The summer months approach and the Cubs’ playoff odds remain over 50 percent. That’s never a bad feeling.