Top Play (WPA): The Cubs actually had the top two WPA plays of the game, and they came in quick succession in the sixth inning. Down 4-1, Kyle Schwarber powered a towering home run to center to make it 4-3 (.166), and then Anthony Rizzo homered to tie the game two batters later (.181). This was a good example of how the Cubs’ latent power can turn games around in short order.
Travis Wood ended up quickly giving the lead back to Pittsburgh in the bottom of the sixth, though, and that was mostly that. This was a game where the Pirates got off to a quick start offensively and never really looked back. Gregory Polanco took Dan Haren deep to lead off the game, and the Pirates scored in five different innings to steadily build their lead. Haren was mediocre in his Cubs debut, allowing seven hits and three earned runs in five innings. His stuff definitely looked very hittable (he maxed out at exactly 88.0 MPH), so command will be key for him going forward, as we have always known to be the case. He relied very heavily on a mixture of fastballs, and induced only six swings-and-misses. His defense could have been more helpful, though: more on that in a bit.
Dan Haren’s Cubs Debut
| Pitch Type | Velo (Max) | H-Break | V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swings / % | Whiffs / % | BIP (No Out) | SNIPs / % | LWTS |
| FT (Two-seam Fastball) | 85.8 (87.7) | -7.55 | 8.08 | 5 | 2 / 40.0% | 0 / 0.0% | 0 / 0.0% | 0 (0) | 2 / 40.0% | 0.28 |
| FF (Four-seam Fastball) | 86.9 (88.0) | -5.44 | 9.77 | 22 | 17 / 77.3% | 10 / 45.5% | 0 / 0.0% | 4 (1) | 13 / 72.2% | 0.08 |
| FC (Cutter) | 83.6 (86.0) | 1.65 | 6.41 | 27 | 17 / 63.0% | 16 / 59.3% | 2 / 7.4% | 7 (3) | 10 / 50.0% | 1.76 |
| FS (Splitter) | 81.4 (82.6) | -4.48 | 5.38 | 8 | 6 / 75.0% | 6 / 75.0% | 2 / 25.0% | 2 (2) | 4 / 66.7% | 0.81 |
| KC (Knuckle-Curve) | 77.1 (78.8) | 3.18 | -3.08 | 25 | 15 / 60.0% | 11 / 44.0% | 2 / 8.0% | 6 (2) | 9 / 47.4% | -0.34 |
(via brooksbaseball.net)
Bottom Play (WPA): Chris Coghlan came off the bench with the bases loaded and two outs in the sixth, but grounded out to end the inning (-.106). He was facing Antonio Bastardo, a lefty brought in specifically to face him. Coghlan has had a promising year, but in a small sample size he has struggled against lefties, going 3-for-27. I was surprised that Coghlan only has twenty-seven at-bats against lefties in the first place, which I guess goes to show the extent to which Joe Maddon has truly platooned Coghlan and (primarily) Chris Denorfia this year.
Key Moment: Haren got off to a bit of a rough start, but his defense didn’t help him out much. Kris Bryant booted a likely inning-ending double play ball in the first inning, and then miscommunicated with Starlin Castro in the fifth on the play that would go on to give the Pirates a 4-1 lead.
It is hard to point directly at these two plays as the reason the Cubs lost the game, but on the other hand, they led directly to two Pirates runs (on the latter play, the run actually scored as the ball trickled by Castro and Bryant). Both should have been plays that ended their respective innings. In a game as tight as this one, those mistakes loom large. This hasn’t been a theme this year (like it sometimes has been in the past), but it is still worth pointing out how routinely solid defense really can go a long way toward a winning season.
Trend to Watch: I have a few trends, both positive and negative. Just for fun, let’s take a look at Rizzo’s recent hot streak–if you arbitrarily go back eight games to July 29, he now has five home runs, and a ridiculous .464/.487/1.107/1.594 slash line. Rizzo has now put up 4.3 WARP this year, which makes him the fourteenth-best player in baseball by that measure. He’s a stud who is playing his best baseball at the right time.
It would be nice to see Haren really lock down the fifth starter spot, and eat some innings down the stretch. Despite the fantastic performances of the Cubs’ top four pitchers, Chicago’s rotation has pitched the twelfth fewest innings of any MLB team on this year (624.0). Much of this is due to inconsistent and short performances from players like Tsuyoshi Wada, Clayton Richard, and Dallas Beeler at the back end. Haren’s five innings in this one were more of the same, but he has still averaged over six innings per start this year, and hopefully his addition will help to keep the ‘pen a little fresher down the stretch.
Over the past 30 days, Kris Bryant has made the least contact on his swings of any player in the league (only 60.3% contact), and he has struggled accordingly. He has posted the lowest average of qualified batters (.152), and he leads the league in strikeouts with 37. He did have a hit tonight, but he had two more strikeouts as well. As Scott Lindholm documented last month, pitchers are continuing to pitch Bryant extraordinarily low in (and even below) the strike zone, and it does not seem that he has adequately adjusted yet. Long-term, I still think Bryant will be (more than) fine, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get an off day or two to collect his thoughts over the next week if things don’t begin to turn around.
Coming Next: The Cubs will look to quickly rebound from this loss and start a new winning streak at Wrigley against the San Francisco Giants tonight. The Cubs lined up their best starters for this important series: Jason Hammel, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and Jake Arrieta will all get a turn against the current leaders of the second Wild Card race. Hammel will start in game one, against 27-year-old rookie Chris Heston, who has been a revelation for the Giants so far this year. Unheralded as a prospect, Heston now owns a 3.24 ERA/3.98 DRA through his first 21 starts, including a no-hitter against the Mets in June. His peripherals are not nearly as promising, however: he has a .296 opponent BABIP, a cFIP of 106, and a strikeout rate of 19.1 percent. This means that Heston has been pitching to a lot of contact, with luckier-than-average results. The Cubs will get their first crack at Heston tonight, and hopefully they can force some regression to the mean.
After scuffling a bit and dealing with a minor hamstring strain, Hammel had a nice start his last time out in Milwaukee. Hammel is looking to continue his 2015 success (3.13 ERA/3.52 DRA/85 cFIP, with career-best strikeout and walk rates of 24.4 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively) down the stretch.
Also worth noting: last night’s game was the last that the Cubs will have to play outside of Chicago until August 25–a nearly unprecedented homestand that Matthew Trueblood wrote about extensively in June. The short version: the Cubs will play four games against San Francisco, three against Milwaukee, three against the White Sox on the South Side, two against Detroit back at Wrigley, four against Atlanta, and then a makeup game against Cleveland before finally heading West. After the Giants series, this stretch has some pretty weak competition, and hopefully, the Cubs will be able to find a comfortable routine at home before the craziness and intensity of a September pennant chase. Personally, I’m excited to settle in and enjoy some meaningful August baseball from Wrigley.
Lead photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire – USA Today Sports.