This is The Beer List. It’s an opportunity, once every so often, for the staff here at BP Wrigleyville to get together (virtually, of course) and respond briefly to one specific, usually quite general, question. Despite the strenuous efforts of certain members of the writing crew to make it so, it has nothing to do with beer and is therefore agnostic between, for random example, Miller Light and Daisy Cutter. This week’s question is this: Why should ____ win NL Rookie of the Year? Will they?
(1) Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs. Before his freshman campaign began, the conversation surrounding Kris Bryant’s candidacy for Rookie of the Year focused primarily on his ability to hit the long ball. And while he has managed a respectable 16 home runs so far, it is the quality of his all-around game that has propelled him to the top of the class. Bryant leads all rookies in fWAR with 4.1, while second-place Matt Duffy comes in at 3.7. He has combined a .312 TAv, above-average baserunning (12 stolen bases!), and surprising defensive ability to lead the pack. Bryant also has an edge in traditional stats, leading all rookies in both runs scored and runs batted in. A late-season power surge would cement his rightful position at the head of the class and deliver the hardware to the standout ex-Torero. —Isaac Bennett
(2) Matt Duffy, San Francisco Giants. Duffy, a former 18th-round selection in 2012 out of Long Beach State University, has produced 3.7 WAR over the course of his rookie season, good for the 13th-best mark in the National League, and third place among Senior Circuit rookies. With a .309/.345/.471 slash line, 10 home runs, 55 driven in, and 50 runs scored, the 24-year-old has exceeded projections while helping to anchor a stellar young infield on a San Francisco team that’s in the thick of a division race.
Not only has the “Duffman” been a solid defender, he’s been a versatile one, too, recording at least one game at every infield position. He hasn’t been subject to any serious slumps at the plate and has improved his batting average every month this season, only once posting a batting average below .300, which came all the way back in April. Though I think he’ll eventually come up short in the Rookie of the Year voting, he and his stellar rookie slash line and plus defense make for a fine candidate. —Kevin Luchansky
(3) Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies. A couple of years ago there were two infielders in the minors displaying ungodly power: Cubs shortstop Javier Baez and Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco. Naturally, my fan instincts kicked in (I live in Philly) and I had to compare the two. Ultimately I objectively (hah, right) convinced myself that Baez was the better prospect, because Franco’s thick lower half would force him to first base. The bat had questions too, as Franco struck out a ton and walked very little.
But Franco has corrected these issues. He went to the Dominican Winter League this past offseason after an unsuccessful cup of coffee at the big-league level, and though he did play first base, he made a lot of improvements. Today, Franco is third among NL rookies with an .830 OPS, fourth with 14 home runs, and third with 48 RBI. But this isn’t just about the batting line: the most impressive part of Franco’s season is how he’s controlling the zone. He’s walking at an 8.5 percent clip, striking out 16.9 percent of the time, and mashing the pitches he deems hittable to the tune of a .213 ISO.
I could’ve picked one of the more popular candidates for this feature, or even the best all-around talent in Randal Grichuk, but Franco’s peripherals scream consistency and repeatable domination by a middle-of-the-order bat playing a premium position. He will and should win the Rookie of the Year award … if the writers stop looking past the AVG/HR/RBI triple-slash. Oh man, here I am hoping for progress from this institution. Welp. —Stan Croussett
(4) Randal Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals. Sam Bowie. Randal Grichuk. This is the list of players drafted the pick before the player who eventually assumed the Throne in their respective sports. Grichuk himself, of course, shouldn’t be saddled with the expectations that come with the Trout comp—that’s on the teams that whiffed on Trout. He’s done pretty well for himself. After landing with the Cardinals in 2013 in the David Freese deal, Grichuk finally made his way to the big-league club in 2014. He had several cups of coffee throughout the season, never accumulating more than 20 at-bats in a single month besides September. All in all, he totaled 110 at bats, and slashed .245/.278/.400 with a .245 TAv. He struck out 26.7 percent of the time and walked only 4.3 percent of the time, for a BB/K rate of 0.16:1. He also showed some power with a .155 ISO. While it was only a brief glimpse, Grichuk proved he had the chops to eventually play everyday.
Grichuk’s big chance came in mid-May of 2015, and he hasn’t relinquished a starting spot since. He has posted a slash line of .285/.331/.556 with a .323 TAv—good for first among rookies with 250 or more plate appearances. His greatest asset is his prodigious pop. He is second among all rookies with an average FB/LD speed of 97.66 mph (min. 100 at bats), which is good for fifth in baseball behind Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Joc Pederson, and Pedro Alvarez. Among rookies with 250 or more plate appearances, he is tops in slugging and 10th in baseball overall. His .274 ISO is first among rookies and ninth in MLB. Extrapolate those numbers to 600 plate appearance—not a perfect exercise, but interesting—and his season line is 28 HR, 90 R, 86 RBI, 8 SB. His walk rate (5.5 percent) and strikeout rate (31.4 percent) have risen slightly, but not damagingly so, to an 0.17:1 BB:K rate—nearly identical to his 2014 performance.
Grichuk is what he is: a player who strikes out a ton while displaying impressive power. Grichuk’s defense in left field is average, but a left fielder is rarely employed for his glove. All told, Grichuk sports the third best WARP among rookies and the first-best soul patch. He doesn’t have the brand or buzz of his rookie counterparts, but he just turned 24, has only played everyday since mid-May, and sits in the middle of the lineup for the best team in MLB. Get on board with the Cardinal Sam Bowie. —James Burns
(5) Jung-ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates. Jung-ho Kang is your 2015 National League Rookie of the Year [Ed: Not yet.]. Entering Saturday, Kang is hitting .290/.363/.448 with a 2.5 bWARP, fourth among National League rookies. While he might not have the prodigious power numbers of Bryant, Pederson, or Schwarber, his .811 OPS and .298 TAv (both seventh among rookies) rank him ahead of Bryant and Schwarber, and are just points behind Duffy and Franco. This is due to an on-base percentage that ranks second among NL rookies. And while Kang does not walk as much as his fellow rookies (six percent walk rate), he also strikes out with less frequency than any of his fellow candidates (20 percent strikeout rate).
Kang’s candidacy was adversely affected early, when, like most of the Pittsburgh Pirates, he had a rough first month of the season, hitting just .269/.310/.346 in April. As the Pirates continued to play .500 baseball in May, Kang broke through, hitting .298/.379/.464. After a bad June (.221/.310/.286) in which he struck out (21) nearly three times as much as he walked (8), Kang had a torrid July (.379/.443/.621, with three home runs). The Pirates went 17-9 in the month, and Kang was arguably the best hitter on one of the best teams in baseball. Today, the Pirates rank top five in the NL in runs scored and on-base percentage, with Kang batting fourth or fifth in the lineup nearly everyday. Start inscribing that plaque, BBWAA. —Andrew Felper
(6) Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers. Pederson may not win the Rookie of the Year, but at the very least he’s made a case for himself. Pederson is third among rookies in VORP and plays a premium defensive position for a World Series contender. He put on a show at the Home Run Derby during the All-Star break. On the season, he’s batting .217/.355/.442, which is good for a .798 OPS (fourth among center fielders in the National League), and he’s slumped lately, hitting just .091/.328/.182 over his last 16 games. But Baseball Prospectus has him projected to hit .234/.334/.433 with seven homers for the rest of the season, which would bring his season total to 29. If the guy hits around .220/.350/.440 with nearly 30 bombs while batting leadoff for a true contender, it would be hard not to at least consider him for the NL Rookie of the Year. —Ryan Davis
(7) Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs. I believe the Rookie of the Year should always go to a player who really, truly looks like a future superstar. In a perfect system, one could go back and read the the winner lists as a record of the best players who debuted each season, not in that season per se, but over the broad sweep of their careers. You can’t give it to a player who actively hurt his team, of course, but within a certain range of performance, expected future value should be a significant factor. In 2009, for instance, no way would I have voted for Chris Coghlan over Andrew McCutchen, even though (in one reading of the data, at least) Coghlan had the better year. (Yes, prospect status entering the season should inform evaluations of the viability of a strong rookie season.)
Enter Russell, who has proven an able defender (that probably undersells him, but it’s a safe assessment, anyway) at both middle-infield positions, and who has demonstrated impressive power (22 doubles, 7 homers) for a 21-year-old, up-the-middle player. He’s not yet a superstar, but he’s been good in some ways his surface-level numbers don’t capture, and if anyone had any doubts about his long-term star status, this season has erased them. He’ll never win, but he has a strong case. —Matt Trueblood
(8) Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs. Schwarber won’t win the Rookie of the Year. But dammit, he should get some votes and some serious consideration. Despite the fewest plate appearances (by far) of any candidate, Schwarber has put up an incredible .330/.420/.621 with eight home runs, good for 1.8 WARP. Prorated for a full season, he would be worth over seven wins—that’s MVP territory. He’s also had an undeniably large impact on the club—not a criterion that matters much to me, but it might be a fine supplementary factor for some voters.
While he’s only going to end up with around 250 plate appearances, Schwarber will likely post around 15 homers and incredible rate stats, with a significant amount of time at a premium defensive position. Oh, and about Schwarber’s catching: it hasn’t been that bad, worth -0.3 FRAA. In an absolutely stacked NL rookie race, other contenders who have accumulated closer to a full season of plate appearances will garner more votes, but Schwarber deserves a top-10 finish, and maybe even a top-five. —Zack Moser
(9) Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets.
Syndergaard,
a prodigy,
a blessed gift from the northern gods,
the gods who lost their way and gambled on butterflies and are still recovering from the loss of a demigod.
Thor,
he of the 25.9 K percentage and 5.6 BB percentage,
he of the 3.11 FIP and 111 SO in 105 2/3 IP,
he who casts lightning bolts and throws hammers to fell his enemies.
Rookie,
he who made his debut as a man-child,
he who has helped carry his team to success,
he who has felled those who oppose him and has left their remains strewn about the batter’s box.
Son of thunder,
a wicked fastball,
a deadly curve,
a workable change and developing command. A promising future and an exciting present.
A rookie of the year. —Mauricio Rubio, Jr.
(10) Michael Taylor, Washington Nationals. Everybody loves a big bat. I’m no exception—Bryce Harper’s explosive swing gets me giddy right alongside all of you, and I’ll even take a short, compact burst like Mike Trout’s in a pinch. But there’s more to baseball than hitting, and there’s more to the Nationals than Bryce Harper (and failing to meet expectations year after year after year). Enter Michael Taylor. Despite being burdened by one of the most boring names of all times, Mr. Taylor has managed to put up an extremely solid 2.2 fWAR over his 365 plate appearances to date. Almost all of that value comes from his defense: he’s been worth 19.1 defensive runs in center field despite putting up an underwhelming 77 wRC+. I’m not saying he’s the best rookie in baseball. He’s probably not. But he is the rookie who’s putting on the best defensive show, and that so rarely goes rewarded. This fall, when you cast your (imaginary) ballots, think different. Think Michael Taylor. —Rian Watt