I think it’s safe to say that Jake Arrieta wasn’t as crisp on Monday evening as we’ve gotten accustomed to. Of course, the Cubs bats were able to pick him up with a historic offensive performance, but it was a little startling to see Arrieta walk off the mound with just two outs in the sixth.
His manager had a feeling early on that this wasn’t going to be a typical Arrieta night.
“I saw that (he wasn’t as sharp) from the beginning,” Maddon told the media after the Cubs 8-6 Game Three win. “I knew that it wasn’t going to be a complete game tonight unless something dramatically happened differently, so I was plotting, planning mentally when is this going to come to an end tonight. Yeah, it just wasn’t the same. Of course, he still had good stuff. He wasn’t as sharp as he normally is, thus he can’t be perfect every night, man. This guy has been on such an incredible roll, it just had to come to an end at some point in that regard.”
And it did, at what many would feel was quite the inopportune time, as the Cubs were looking to take a 2-1 lead in the NLDS. But perhaps the timing was perfect, as the Cubs bats took a little more advantage of the howling wind than the Cardinals were able to, slugging six home runs—one each from the top six hitters in the lineup. It wasn’t the performance anyone expected from Arrieta, but in the end, the team still got the win, and as Arrieta happily pointed out, that’s what they needed.
“It was a huge team win,” an upbeat Arrieta said in the postgame clubhouse. “The six home runs, it’s just incredible. Against a guy like Wacha, and then Soler with the huge two-run homer off of Wainwright there just to add to the total for us. Special night.”
While it ended up being an incredible evening to witness, as Maddon said, something just wasn’t right with Arrieta from the start. With the weather doing what it was, one would have expected Arrieta to be down in the zone and even below it with most of his pitches. However, in that initial frame, Arreta was up much more than anticipated. Arrieta was still able to come out of the inning unscathed, striking out two and getting Holliday to whiff on a vintage nasty slider to bring the Cubs up to bat and make one wonder if he was just about to find his rhythm.
In the second, Arrieta fell behind Jason Heyward 2-0 and the lefty slugged a pitch out over the plate to the opposite field over Kyle Schwarber’s head for a double. Jhonny Peralta then followed and quickly got ahead 3-0. Arrieta got him to swing at the next pitch, then induced a ground ball for the innings first out. He managed to do the same with the next two batters and end the frame with no harm done.
But Arrieta’s inability to get ahead of the opposition was perplexing—he fell behind eight of the first 12 batters he faced. It was something that hadn’t happened with any consistency over the season’s final few month, and to see him fall behind batter after batter was a bit jarring. But the third went by without incident, and once again the feeling started to creep back in that perhaps Arrieta had gone through his rocky moment and was now back to vintage Jake.
Then came the fourth. Arrieta got ahead of Stephen Piscotty 0-2, then missed with his next four pitches to put the leadoff man on.
The 1-2 pitch bounced through the left-handed batters box:
And ball four nearly hit Piscotty in the head:
There was clearly something off with Arrieta, and his catcher Miguel Montero knew it as well.
“His warm up wasn’t as good as it normally is, but you really don’t go with that either, because when you cross the line, things can change,” Montero said. “I thought he was throwing the ball good, but for a second, I don’t know what happened, he really lost it. I was like, ooh, boy. I was like, oh my god, what’s going on over here. He wasn’t even close to the plate.”
A first-pitch ball to Matt Holliday prompted a visit from Montero. The next pitch was wide as well, and it was time for pitching coach Chris Bosio to take a stroll to the mound. Despite the pair of chats, Arrieta missed with his next two pitches, walking the first two men of the inning. He was able to get the dangerous Heyward to strike out looking, then quickly got ahead of Peralta 0-2.
Arrieta then hung an 88-mph slider, and Peralta pounced:
The Cardinals added another run on a groundout and suddenly they were leading the Cubs 2-1.
“I knew my job was gonna be to keep the ball down and get some good swing and misses on balls not necessarily in or out, but underneath the strike zone,” Arrieta said. “I felt like coming out they had a pretty good approach against my slider, took some really good ones, and when I was up in the zone, they put some really good swings on it. But overall, kept the ball down for the most part, only that one long ball there. But really, the take away for me was the two walks, both of those scored.”
Arrieta’s right, while it looked like he may not have had his command, he actually just wasn’t getting the Cardinals to chase as much as other teams had in the past. This season, Arrieta has the eighth-highest O-Swing% in the NL and 14th-lowest Z-Swing%, meaning that he succeeds by getting the opponent to swing at pitches outside of the zone while getting them to watch his strikes pass by. This is all created by the sequencing that Arrieta has talked about so often. Laying off Arrieta’s slider is no easy task, but St. Louis managed to do it. They forced him to come over the plate in hitter’s counts, and when he made a mistake in the zone—like he did when ahead on Peralta—they didn’t let the opportunity go by unpunished.
Even when Arrieta didn’t make a mistake, the Cardinals were able to capitalize. After jumping out to a 5-2 lead in the fifth, Arrieta looked to shut down the Cardinals to start the sixth. However, Matt Holliday led off the inning with a single and Heyward was able to take a pitch well off the plate away and deposit it into the left-field bleachers to bring St. Louis within a run.
Two strikeouts and a hit batter later, and Arrieta was walking off the mound—to the cheers of 42,411 strong—in favor of reliever Clayton Richard.
“That lineup had a great approach tonight,” Arrieta said. “Very balanced, top to bottom, there’s really no breaks in that lineup that the featured tonight. They made it tough, they did. They made me battle, they made me work for it. I was able to get out of some big situations, but that breaking ball that Heyward hit out was a good six inches off the plate.”
Arrieta was very complimentary of his bullpen and the offense, repeatedly talking about how it takes a whole team to win games, especially in the postseason. The Cubs ace has been on such an amazing run that seeing him struggle like he did on Monday felt so foreign to anyone who has watched him dominate over the last few months.
“We got nine guys out there, most of the time 12 to 15 guys see play throughout a game, especially in the postseason,” Arrieta said. “We need all of them to contribute. This type of start hasn’t happened to me in quite some time, but that’s why we got nine guys to go out there and provide some offense, play some good defense. My job is just to go out and make pitches and every once in a while, they’ll get ya.”
And even on a night when it was clear that Arrieta wasn’t at the top of his game, his team still came out on top and the big righty’s mindset remained positive.
“Felt good,” Arrieta said when asked about how he felt physically. “Got out of rhythm a little bit with some uncharacteristic walks. You know, it’s a different environment in the playoffs. You have to control the emotions and try and conserve the energy when you have the ability to do so. It’s a learning process.”
Arrieta kept coming back to the walks. The home run to Heyward was just a great player doing something with a good pitch. But the walks were, as Arrieta put it, uncharacteristic, and clearly stuck with the confident righty after the game. There are a few ways to look at Monday’s start. One is that Arrieta was unable to control his emotions, leading to those walks, and a man who has tossed a no-hitter and dominated lineups since July was suddenly caught up in the moment. I wouldn’t bet on that being the case.
Another way to look at it was that despite not having his best stuff, Arrieta was still able to strike out nine batters in 5 2/3 innings. He allowed those two walks, but it’s unlikely those happen again, and you just tip your hat to Heyward as he won a battle between two All-Stars. That’s a little more optimistic, and perhaps the route most Cubs fans will take.
But here’s the reality: if we’re just looking at the results, Jake Arrieta tossed his worst start in three and a half months and the Cubs were still able to come away with the victory. They’re one win away from the NLCS berth with Arrieta on schedule to start Game One on regular rest. Nobody who has watched this man pitch of late should doubt that he’s champing at the bit to put Monday’s performance in the rearview mirror and start up another stretch of dominance. I certainly wouldn’t bet against it.
Lead photo courtesy of Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Game 1 wouldn’t be regular rest – Game 2 would be, right? Any definitive word yet on whether he’ll actually start Game 1?
Game 1 is Saturday, Arrieta pitched Monday, so Game 1 would be regular rest. But is sounds like Lester will get Game 1, which makes sense. Don’t want him sitting any longer than he needs to and he’ll already be on seven days rest.