Top Play (WPA): Let’s start with some good vibes, shall we?
Before the Cubs Cubsed their way to maybe the Cubsiest loss all Cubs season, it looked like it might be a vintage Good Cubs comeback victory behind strong pitching from their ace. The Cubs scraped one run off of the Pirates’ lead in the fourth, with a Javier Baez groundout plating Jason Heyward following the latter’s triple, but the big blow came in the sixth.
The inning started with promise: Addison Russell reached on an error by the dread Pirate David Freese, the third baseman’s second of the evening, and Heyward followed with a single to put two runners on base. It continued with the baseball equivalent of a sad trombone: Baez grounded into a double play, one of three on the night for the Cubs. Luckily, the struggling and questionably healthy Miguel Montero was not deterred. The catcher looped a fly ball just far enough to land in the front rows of the right-field seats, atop the 21-foot wall, for a two-run homer that tied the game (+.265).
Bottom Play (WPA): You’ve seen this slasher flick—the innocent teen seems to be out of the woods, having escaped almost certain death, just to be cut down by the grotesque, inhumanly large villain with a twee weapon (baseball bat, anyone?). The seventh inning was more like the sequel to that horror film, actually: bloodier, more over-the-top, and awful enough to make you not want to see more.
Jake Arrieta, having settled down for four innings after a two-homer second, slipped from an 0-2 count to Adam Frazier all the way to a walk, and Josh Bell succeeded with a single on the first pitch of the next at-bat. The Pirates were just getting their Bugs-Bunny-Marches-the-Bases.gif ready, though. The, er, dreaded Pirate John Jaso singled; Anthony Rizzo threw away a Gregory Polanco chopper to the right side; the always-dangerous Andrew McCutcheon singled; and Starling Marte grounded into a run-scoring fielder’s choice. When the dust cleared, it was the Bell single that garnered the title of Most Impactful Play (-.203).
Key Moment: The Cubs actually led at one point in this game, however briefly. Pirates reliever Neftali Feliz, who have up the badge of the Rangers to join the Pirates pillaging on the high seas, worked Rizzo to a 3-2 count with two outs in the inning before hurling a 98-mile-per-hour fastball right down Main Street. Rizzo parked the ball into the right-center-field seats, bringing on a cavalcade of boos and cheers alike, as the Cubs took a 4-3 lead.
Trend to Watch: Welp, it’s time to worry about the ace. After the game, Arrieta morbidly joked about finding his stuff back in Low-A ball before returning to the major-league club. The righty gave up six runs on the night, his third consecutive start of four or more runs allowed, his only such stretch in a Cubs uniform.
After a shaky second inning, in which he surrendered home runs to Freese and Sean Rodriguez, Arrieta cruised—after six innings, he had reached only 75 pitches, a low total for the hurler who usually racks up strikeouts, walks, and full counts on the way to high pitch counts. Perhaps Joe Maddon should have been quick to his ‘pen, knowing Arrieta’s recent struggles, but he probably thought that Arrieta had found his groove for the first time in weeks. Unfortunately, the seventh inning was not kind to our bearded hero.
This week, I took a deep dive into Arrieta’s season to find out what, if anything, is identifiably wrong with him, and I came up with some interesting conclusions regarding his mechanics, pitch movement, and command. Those trends remain important, and correcting Arrieta after the All-Star break is imperative to the Cubs’ second half success.
Coming Next: The All-Star break.
Nah, that’s just wishful thinking. The Cubs have lost eight of nine, and have two more versus this Pirates team over the weekend. Jon Lester (3.96 DRA, 96 cFIP, 2.67 ERA) looks to recover from a disastrous start in New York on Sunday, in which he gave up eight runs in a career-low 1 1/3 innings. The veteran toes the rubber against rookie Chad Kuhl (4.28, 107, 4.09), who threw a solid six innings against Oakland in his second major-league start. With the Cubs playing as poorly as they are, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Maddon begin thinking ahead, resting some of his starters for an extended break coming up. FOX has the game nationally at 6:10 CDT, with the Cubs radio call on 670 WSCR.
Lead photo courtesy Charles LeClaire—USA Today Sports