This is The Beer List. It’s an opportunity, once every so often, for the staff here at BP Wrigleyville to get together (virtually, of course) and respond briefly to one specific, usually quite general, question. Despite the strenuous efforts of certain members of the writing crew to make it so, it has nothing to do with beer and is therefore agnostic between, for random example, Busch Light and Daisy Cutter. This week’s question is this: Who is your preferred trade deadline target this year, and why? We got, um, a lot of responses.
(1) Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds. Jason Motte has been working wonders recently as the Cubs’ “unofficial” closer. But there is no denying that Motte, who is two years removed from Tommy John surgery, has become more of a crafty option out of the ‘pen than a straight hard-throwing one. This has been working for him thus far, but his hold on the closer role is fragile, and on days when he isn’t missing a ton of bats, it is clear that the Cubs could use a solid, closer-by-trade type reliever. This is where my trade deadline target comes in, and it’s none other than Cincinnati’s own “Cuban Missile,” Aroldis Chapman. For those of you who are unaware, although I do tend to favor craftier pitchers vs. the ones who throw straight gas, I’m a huge Chapman supporter. There is no denying that after six seasons in the majors, he is the absolute alpha dog of closers.
Chapman, who threw 12 of his 14 pitches at speeds greater than 100 miles per hour during this year’s All-Star Game, has not only shown flashes of brilliance in his role with the Reds, but has shown that he is the one thing the Cubs are lacking out of the bullpen: consistent. He has thrown his brilliant 100-mph fastball for 80 percent of his pitches in 2015, leading him to achieve a miniscule 1.60 ERA and an eye-popping strikeout rate of 41.7 percent so far this season. He’s absolutely brilliant to watch. He’s not perfect, but he can give the Cubs the safety net they don’t particularly have right now. The Cubs don’t need perfect out of the bullpen, but they do need what they’ve been lacking in the first half: dominance and efficiency. Chapman can give them both, and do it at 100 miles per hour. —Cat Garcia
(2) Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds. The pitching staff has been stable all year, but there is a difference between starts in the playoffs and starts in the regular season. Some of that is mental, but the crux of the difference is the advance scouting that takes place in October. In a short series, everything is compressed and tendencies are exposed. The Cubs have been careful with the back end of their rotation so far; specifically, they’ve done a good job of shielding Kyle Hendricks from overexposure. Hitters have only gotten to a fourth plate apperance three times against him this year. That changes in the playoffs, and that’s why I’m advocating for Johnny Cueto as an addition. He’s a rental, but he’s also a premier pitcher who has displayed the type of stuff and command that wins playoff games. The Cubs will be a force if they run Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, and Cueto out in a playoff series. I have more faith that the hitting will come around eventually than I do that the pitching will hold serve in the playoffs, and the addition of Cueto shifts the odds in the Cubs’ favor come October. —Mauricio Rubio, Jr.
(3) Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers. When is the best time to buy? The answer is obvious: when the market values something lower than it should be valued. Who do I think may fit that description at this moment? Carlos Gomez. Here’s why: Between 2012 and 2013, the “other” CarGo produced 13.3 bWAR while making just $11.3 million in total. This production has clearly generated tremendous value over the last two seasons. Gomez has been bitten by the injury bug this year, but recently stated he is back feeling healthy and ready to contribute. He also has an additional year remaining on his contract at just $9 million, making his acquisition more than just a one-year rental. Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler has been a bit of a disappointment for the Cubs, posting a lackluster .320 OBP out of the leadoff spot. Furthering the issue is that Fowler will be a free agent at the end of the season. Gomez would solve 2015 and 2016 in center field for the Cubs at a potentially discounted rate due to his injury-shortened first half, while not blocking any long term possibilities in center on the prospect front. —Isaac Bennett
(4) Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies. The idea that the Cubs need a bat to boost their playoff hopes is a delusion borne of the last months’ hardships. This team can hit plenty, and if they can’t, they’re not a playoff team anyway. No, what the Cubs need most—going forward, not living in the past—is a solid, innings-eating, reliably strong starting pitcher. That guy can take loads of pressure off the badly overworked bullpen, bump some of the fringier starting options on hand firmly into relief roles, and most importantly, prevent way more runs while he’s in there than the likes of Travis Wood and Tsuyoshi Wada have this season.
Of course, it’s not likely that the Cubs will want to invest in such a pitcher only for the next two months. Any acquisition at this trade deadline is going to come at a real, probably steep price, so it’s only worth doing if that price can buy multiple years of club control over a good hurler. Hamels is the best fit for the Cubs, and with their farm depth, the Cubs are the best possible fit for Hamels (save the Dodgers). It’s a natural thing. —Matt Trueblood
(5) Dan Haren, SP, Miami Marlins. The Cubs’ offense has been very spotty recently, but if you, like I, expect Jorge Soler to provide a big spark, and Fowler and Starlin Castro to turn it around, the next glaring issue with this Cubs team is its starting-pitching depth. The Cubs’ top four pitchers have been pretty good this year, but if any one of Arrieta, Lester, Hammel, or Hendricks were to get injured, the back of the Cubs rotation would start to look very shaky. This is why I’d love to see the Cubs trade for Miami’s Dan Haren.
If Miami is selling, Haren’s expiring $10 million contract should look very attractive to a Cubs team that is likely looking to fill another rotation spot with a more long-term solution on the mound this coming offseason. Haren is a veteran nearing the twilight of his career, and so although he has been historically reluctant to move, he might be interested in playing for a team competing for the playoffs. He also would certainly cost much less in prospect value than a Hamels or a Cueto (or even a Scott Kazmir). And, on top of all that, the 34-year-old is having a pretty decent season, with a serviceable 4.01 DRA in 111 innings of work. If the Cubs don’t want to rely too much on Clayton Richard and Wada, Haren would make a lot of sense as a relatively low-cost, low-risk depth pickup for their top-heavy rotation. —Nate Greabe
(6) Scott Kazmir, SP, Oakland Athletics. What a difference a year makes:
| Pitcher, Year | Age | W-L | ERA | GS | IP | SO | FIP | WHIP |
| Samardzija, 2014 | 29 | 2-7 | 2.83 | 17 | 108 | 103 | 3.09 | 1.204 |
| Kazmir, 2015 | 31 | 5-5 | 2.49 | 17 | 101.1 | 96 | 3.18 | 1.115 |
The top line is Jeff Samardzija’s line on the eve of last year’s blockbuster trade that also sent Hammel to the A’s and netted the Cubs Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily. This year, though, the Cubs are the buyers and the A’s the sellers. Samardzija’s line looks remarkably similar to Kazmir’s, so it’s reasonable to think he might fetch a similar price. However, Samardzija was on a significantly cheaper contract and had an arbitration year left, and Kazmir is purely a two-month rental. That pegs his price as something less than a prospect of Russell’s caliber. Kris Bryant, Soler, and Kyle Schwarber are safe. The A’s already had McKinney and it feels too early to sell on Gleyber Torres.
After them come a bunch of prospects that represent both high risk and high upside. Javier Baez is a bit richer than I’d like to go, but Albert Almora, Dan Vogelbach, Christian Villanueva, and Arismendy Alcantara are all players who might not pan out, but with the kind of potential you might regret dealing away later. Seems about right for a two month rental of Kazmir and a shot at the play-in game. —Michael Wenz
(7) Nobody, No Place, Nowhere. I’m willing to sit the 2015 trade season out. While I wouldn’t mind some more pitching, the Cubs’ issues haven’t been in pitching, but in offense. Realistically, the only place to add offense will be in the outfield, and even there it’s probably only in left field. With McKinney and Almora patiently waiting down on the farm and Schwarber potentially headed for left sometime in the near future, it becomes a very reasonable question where any acquired outfielder would play anyway.
Fowler is a free agent after this season, and I’d be willing to stick with him at a reasonable price. Soler hits balls harder than just about anyone else, so I’m willing to give him time to develop. I’d even think twice about displacing Chris Coghlan from left, since his play isn’t the reason the Cubs can’t score runs. If the Cubs can pick up pieces for nothing (and I mean literally nothing) after August 1st, be my guest—other than that, I’m good with what they have, and I’m not willing to sell off the future for the sake of the present. —Scott Lindholm
(8) Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies. You’ve probably grown tired of hearing me yap about it by now. I want the Cubs to go get Papelbon. I know. I know. He’s a foul-mouthed hothead with the craziest eyes of anyone not named Zack Greinke. I’ve experienced the same concerns you’re thinking of right now. But living in Philadelphia has given me the opportunity to see Paps in person three times already (I might be the Phillies’ lucky charm to see him close out this many victories in such a dreadful season) and I have come away impressed.
Sure, he isn’t throwing 97 mph anymore, but you don’t expect many 34-year-olds to do that anyway. The hard slider is still there, and he’s still throwing a splitter that looks just like his fastball. And oh yeah, he can throw that fastball anywhere he wants at 90-92. However you look at it, Papelbon pounds the bottom of the strike zone, avoids hard contact (15.2 percent of batted balls against him have been liners), and is getting the most ground balls of his career. That’s the kind of veteran consistency and effectiveness the Cubs need for a playoff run. —Stan Croussett
(9) Gerardo Parra, OF, Milwaukee Brewers. It’s very difficult for the Cubs to improve through trade right now for a variety of reasons: a handful of key offensive contributors due for improvement, Baez’s injury, and an oft-justified reluctance to deal top prospects. The best opportunities to improve appear to me to be incremental, which is why I’m advocating for an unsexy trade target in the form of the Brewers’ Gerardo Parra. Fowler’s uncharacteristically poor season at the plate has been partially induced by the dearth of left-handed pitchers facing the Cubs, and likely won’t last, but if the Cubs’ front office were feeling proactive and saucy, they could get Parra for very little.
Although I doubt his ability to continue at the .292 TAv clip he’s hit at with Milwaukee this year—far better than his career .259—Parra hits righties well and plays legit Gold Glove defense. He’s a career .281/.325/.420 hitter versus righties, which isn’t too much better than Fowler’s career numbers, but I think that the Cubs’ center fielder could use some days off. His ability to play all three outfield spots could also spell Coghlan and Soler, keeping them fresh in an important stretch run. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer could get Parra for peanuts, as long as they aren’t scared of his cratering baserunning skills. It’s a low-risk, medium-reward type move that would either shore up a couple of soft spots, or prove relatively inconsequential. —Zack Moser
(10) Ben Revere, OF, Philadelphia Phillies. I think Epstein and Hoyer need to take a good look at Ben Revere if he’s someone the Phillies make available for discussion. Revere is still on his rookie contract and won’t be a free agent until after the 2017 season at the earliest. Beyond the team-friendly contract, he’s been one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball this season, hitting for good average (.297), not striking out too often (9.4 strikeout percentage), making a lot of contact (91 percent contact rate), and wreaking havoc on the base paths (21 out of 25 in stolen base attempts). To say that Fowler has been a disappointment in the leadoff role this season would be putting it nicely, and Revere would not only be an improvement in that role, but an upgrade in the field as well. —Kevin Luchansky
(11) Tyson Ross, SP, San Diegro Padres. I’ve already raised this possibility on this site, in a piece on potential pickups that ran in the middle of last month, so I’ll keep this short and sweet. Ross is young (28), successful (ERA- of 94, 81, 90 the last three season), and a ground-ball pitcher (62.9 percent ground ball rate this year). He can be packaged with any number of potentially interesting Padres outfielders, including one who’s mentioned elsewhere in this piece, and he’s not even a free agent until 2018. He’s not as flashy as some of the big names here, but he’ll get the job done at half the price. —Rian Watt
(12) Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago White Sox. I’ve been on record in the past saying that I think the Cubs should trade for Samardzija, and I’m not deviating from the idea. In Samardzija’s last six starts, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA in 45 innings pitched, allowing 37 hits and just 10 walks. He’s not striking out as many batters as you’d like to see this season, and he’s getting less groundballs and more fly balls. With just 7.14 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, Samardzija relies on his defense to make plays behind him more than most pitchers. His peripheral numbers are similar to what Hendricks has done this season.
I think this could fit with the Cubs. The Cubs are currently eighth in defensive efficiency, whereas the White Sox are ahead of only the Phillies in this category. This is backed up by team UZR ratings, which places the Cubs seventh in all of baseball. According to UZR, Coghlan, Russell, and Bryant have been especially good. Hendricks has had some success this season, with a 3.44 ERA and 3.24 FIP, and Samardzija could be at least as good if he had a quality defense behind him. —Ryan Davis
(13) Junichi Tazawa & Koji Uehara, RPs, Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox are going nowhere in 2015. I say this as a long-time New Englander, Red Sox observer, and employer of common sense. Anybody on the big-league roster not named Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Eduardo Rodriguez should be available. The Cubs can find outstanding late-inning bullpen arms in Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara. This season, Tazawa owns a 0.966 WHIP, 25.6 percent strikeout rate, and a 4.5 percent walk rate. He has been effective against both right-handed batters (.176/.231/.271) and left-handed batters (.258/.281/.339). He goes to his four-seam fastball on 62 percent of all pitches, and he is averaging just under 95 mph on the pitch this season. In the 2013 postseason, Tazawa made 13 appearances, posting a 1.23 ERA and 0.955 WHIP, and recording key strikeouts of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Tazawa is arbitration eligible after the season.
Uehara might be 40 and just a shade under the pitcher he was from 2011-2013 (175 appearances, 0.639 WHIP, 35.9 percent strikeout rate), but he is still outstanding. In 37 appearances, he has recorded 22 saves with a 0.891 WHIP and 28.6 percent strikeout rate. He still makes his money with his splitter (59 percent usage rate in 2015), with opposing batters slugging just .304. Like Tazawa, Uehara was outstanding in the 2013 postseason, saving seven games and posting a 0.512 WHIP and 34.8 percent strikeout rate. He is set to earn $9 million 2016, the last year of his current deal. —Andrew Felper
(14) Ryan Theriot, IF, Retired. I don’t think there’s an active player on any major-league roster who can help the Cubs. There is, however, one man who is—incredibly—not playing in the majors, and who can lead the North Siders to a certain World Series title: Theriot.
Sure, go ahead and laugh. “Ohhhh, but his slugging was a feeble .321 in his last season,” you say. Or, “Ohhhh, his combined WAR for his last three seasons was 0.2.” And I’ll tell you this: Cram your numbers, Poindexter. My man The Riot has something that doesn’t show up on your nerdy spreadsheets: Moxie. Gumption. Grit. Fire.
Theriot’s gravelly fortitude would rub off on the team, and soon Castro’s maddening mental errors would be a thing of the past. Because of Theriot’s pluck and mettle, Soler would stop getting injured and start hitting homers. Fowler would remember how to get on base. And David Ross would suddenly become 15 years younger. Go ahead and look for a “pitcher” or a “hitter” who can help the team. I’m looking for a “winner.” And I know just where to find one. —Joel Reese
(15) Justin Upton, OF, San Diego Padres. In November 2008, the Colorado Rockies sent Matt Holliday to the Oakland A’s. The haul for Colorado? Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street. In making the move, Oakland positioned itself for a run at the whole shebang in 2009. Things didn’t work out, and they shipped the 29-year-old free agent-to-be Holliday to St. Louis in July 2009, just eight months after acquiring him. The headliner in return was Brett Wallace (and a couple of arms). Wallace was St. Louis’ number two prospect, behind Colby Rasmus, and BP’s number 37 prospect, entering the 2009 season. Although the Los Angeles Manny Ramirezes swept the Cardinals in the 2009 postseason, Holliday raked for the Redbirds to the tune of a .353/.419/.604 line, with 13 HR in 235 AB.
In December 2014, the Atlanta Braves sent Justin Upton to the San Diego Padres. The haul for Atlanta: Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, and Max Fried. Just like Oakland in 2009, San Diego was positioning itself for a run at the whole shebang in 2015. Also like Oakland in 2009, things haven’t worked out. The Padres should ship their 27-year-old free agent-to-be Upton to Chicago in July 2015, just seven months after acquiring him. The headliner in return could be Almora (and a couple of arms). Almora was the Cubs’ number four prospect, behind three current major leaguers, and BP’s number 38 prospect, entering the 2015 season.
I don’t believe the Cubs will sign Upton for 2016 and beyond, what with their stacked farm system. This is a rental and a shot at 2015. Upton’s PECOTA projection for the rest of season is .261/.341/.445 with 10 HR in 231 AB. Upton isn’t Holliday. He should cost less and San Diego should be excited to unload the final few months of control for several years of control of unproven Cubs minor leaguers. If nothing else, the Cubs can rest easy knowing the Manny Ramirezes won’t sweep them in the postseason—because he’s not on the payroll. —James Burns
(16) Ben Zobrist, UTIL, Oakland Athletics. Zobrist is an ideal acquisition for the Cubs, providing positional versatility, consistent offensive production from both sides of the plate, and generally solid defense. The 34-year-old Zobrist has played every position except catcher in his career, but has spent the most time at second base, left field, right field, and shortstop. Zobrist became an everyday player in 2009 for Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay, where he played eight positions (including designated hitter). From 2009-2014, Zobrist posted 6.25 wins above replacement on average, while slashing .270/.365/.439. He averaged over 16 home runs and nearly 16 stolen bases per year. Though Zobrist has hit for a higher average as a right-handed batter (.285/.364/.443 vs. .254/.350/.432), he has significantly more pop from the left side of the plate, further evidenced by his 89 career home runs from the left side vs. 30 career home runs from the right. The list of players who have contributed more wins above replacement since 2009 is a short one—Miguel Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen.
This is an ideal time to target Zobrist in trade, as he has been trying to overcome a slow start to 2015 that was brought on by a visit to the disabled list in late April due to torn knee cartilage. Playing in only 58 games, Zobrist has produced a .261/.346/.429 slash line so far this season with 5 home runs. This production has been good for only .5 Wins above replacement. If you extrapolate the numbers he has posted over 58 games to a full season, however, Zobrist is performing largely to his historical norms. In fact, he is actually on pace for a significantly lower strikeout total, more walks, more RBI, and more runs scored than his historical averages. Playing on the last year of a six-year deal for which he would be owed just over $3 million, Zobrist would not come cheap, but he would be seen as a rental with control only through the end of this season. Complicating matters are numerous reports that both New York clubs, the Washington Nationals, and the San Francisco Giants are all interested in Zobrist. A bidding war could drive the price up to a point where the Cubs are not comfortable paying, though if they decide they want a player at all costs, very few teams have the assets with which to outbid the Cubs. —Jeff Lamb
None of these suggestions will become a Cub. Dream all you want. If the Cubs trade for pitching it will be a young cost controlled talent. Trading prospects for a rental just won’t happen. Zorbrist is too much in demand for the Cubs to chase. I expect the front office to be a lot more creative in filling a left handed outfield bat. Hamel’s is a possibility but offering Castro & Baez? I hang up laughing.