USATSI_9131519_168382903_lowres

Maybe Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward Should Bat Sixth

INTERIOR of Dexter Fowler’s living room. Fowler is on the speaker phone with his agent.

CASEY CLOSE

So it looks like 3 years, 33 million is the best Angelos is gonna do.

DEXTER FOWLER

I guess that’s what I’ll have to go with. There aren’t any other offers?

CASEY CLOSE

None that I’m aware of …

OFFSCREEN VOICE

I wouldn’t be so sure of that.

CUT TO medium shot of Theo Epstein stepping out of the shadows dressed in a black trenchcoat and eye patch.

THEO EPSTEIN

I’m here to talk to you about the Avenger initiative.

RYAN DEMPSTER

Did somebody call Captain America?

THEO EPSTEIN

Why must you kill the mood EVERY TIME?!

***

I’m 95 percent sure that’s how it went down.

There are two immediate benefits to the return of Dexter Fowler. The first is that anytime I’m in a bad mood over the next couple months, I’m going to watch the clip of him taking the field to surprise his teammates and immediately feel a hundred times better. The scene’s combination All The Feels and multiple F-bombs will remain unmatched unless someone unearths a cat video posted by Lil Wayne.

The second positive of this move is that it gives Joe Maddon another reason to experiment with his line-ups. (As opposed to the other excuses he uses to do so such as “It’s Wednesday.”) While Fowler’s return is justifiably getting all the attention, the biggest impact of his signing might be its effect on how Maddon utilizes Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward, the team’s two best contact hitters.

Consider Zobrist first. Many have him pegged as an ideal number two hitter, and his high contact swing could indeed be a real strength after Fowler reaches base. Meanwhile, last week Matthew Trueblood made a compelling case that Zobrist could also be very useful batting ninth. But there’s yet another place Maddon can put Zobrist to get optimal value from his skillset and in the process make Kyle Schwarber’s life a lot easier: Show choir choreographer sixth.

The 2016 Cubs are going to drive up a lot of opposing starters’ pitch counts and consequently will face many bullpen match-ups in the middle innings. Let’s assume that on a given day the top of the Cubs’ order looks like this:

Fowler

Heyward

Rizzo

Bryant

Schwarber

(Incidentally, if you enter this line-up into MLB’16 The Show, you unlock the ability to end each at bat with the phrase “FINISH HIM.” Which is especially intimidating coming from the voice of Pat Hughes.)

Not only does the middle of this order project to make pitchers file a work safety complaint with OSHA, its L-R-L pattern will be a match-up nightmare in the middle of the game. Since Schwarber’s biggest struggle last year was with left handers (.143/.213/.268), Maddon has to do what he can to keep him from seeing LOOGYs whenever possible.

Here’s where Zobrist’s hitting ability can be most useful. Not only does he break up the cluster of strikeout prone hitters by following Bryant and Schwarber, he’s also a switch hitter who feasts on lefties (.315/.387/.474 for his career). So if Maddon bats Zobrist in the sixth spot with this line-up, one of two things will happen when the opposing team tries to play match-ups in the middle of the game:

1. Their manager will burn through half his bullpen in one inning.

OR

2. Schwarber will get to face more right handers and do things to baseballs that resemble a Tom Emanski video directed by Eli Roth.

And on days when Jorge Soler plays left field, Maddon can switch Heyward into this spot to perform the same function while Zobrist makes an effective number two hitter.

This is the kind of advantage the Cubs can gain if they properly utilize Zobrist and Heyward. With Fowler acting as a true lead-off man every day, Maddon is free to use both of them to break up his low-contact lineup with folks who can put hte bat on the ball. Getting Zobrist and Heyward at bats at different parts of the line-up is not only a strength, it’s essential for the Cubs to get the most out of their offense this year.

And then in a twist no one will see coming, The Avenger Initiative might finally be able to take out Thor.

Lead photo courtesy Rick Scuteri—USA Today Sports.

Related Articles

4 comments on “Maybe Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward Should Bat Sixth”

victor19nyc

Or maybe fifth? Having two high K-rate guys in Bryant and Schwarber together at 4 and 5 could be rally killers. Having a high contact rate guy after Bryant could be optimal in a greater chance of extending innings, then Schwarber can deliver knockout punches from the six hole.

Line-up-ology is really fun with this team.

Kevin

Entertaining AND informative? Ken, I think you may have just been preemptively fired by ESPN.

I think 2 and 6 makes probably the most sense for those guys to split up the high contact rates. Though on days when pitcher is hitting 8th, I can get excited about Zobrist going to 9, and Addison getting a shot a little higher up at 6 (might be nice for him to face less hard throwing relievers that way, once in a while), and Schwarb or Rizz going to 2.

Again, random.org could spit out a great lineup here, but it sure is fun to think about.

Ken Schultz

Thanks! But you’re too late. ESPN already preemptively canned me when I started writing about a baseball team in the central time zone.

I’d like to see Russell moved up in the order too. Even with a rough looking PECOTA, he’s still projected for 16 home runs and I’d like some of those to be hit behind someone other than the pitcher.

theguz

2 more reasons they should bat 6th: Zobrist’s .909 OPS in the 6-hole is his best mark by 50 pts over his next-best spot.

J-Hey is even more pronouncedly dominant there: his .982 us 200 pts higher than his next-best spot (excluding a small-sample 8th-spot, where he’ll never hit anyway–and he still tops his numbers in the 8-spot).

And another: both men become TRUE second leadoffs at 6, in the very likely scenario they come up with the bases empty (thanks to the powerful beauty of Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, maybe Soler hitting before them); they both are stronger on-base men than Fowler, both heady baserumners (w/Heyward our best).

Because they both perfectly complement each other on handedness splits, (Zo rips LHP, J-Hey RHP) bat Zo 2nd, Hey 6 vs. LHP, reverse it vs. RHP.

Kick ass.

Leave a reply Cancel reply

Use your Baseball Prospectus username