Power, PECOTA, and the 2016 Cubs

One of the coolest benefits of writing for Baseball Prospectus—and there are a few, hashtag humblebrag—is that I get early access to the PECOTA projections, which were just released by BP last Tuesday. This allowed me the time to pore over the projected numbers for the Cubs and drool about the power potential therein. It shouldn’t […]


PECOTA Day: Why Addison Russell Boasts the Most Interesting, Least Useful Cubs Projection

Addison Russell had a profoundly weird rookie season. You can tell it was weird, because Russell (a right-hitting, slick-fielding middle infielder who hit for surprising power but struck out a ton) got Christian Yelich (a left-hitting corner outfielder whose standout skill is his pure hit tool) as his fifth-closest PECOTA comp for 2016. Freddie Freeman […]

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

An Exercise in Hopeful Caution: The Young Cubs and PECOTA 10-Year Projections

There are lots of exciting things about the Chicago Cubs this season, and in my opinion the most exciting among them is this: Despite their sizable and ever-increasing odds of making the playoffs (86.3 percent, as of this writing), fans have every reason to believe that the 2015 major-league baseball season will be the Cubs’ worst  in […]