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The 90th Percentile Cubs

Last week, the PECOTA projections were released and while few would have expected another hundred-win season projected for the Cubs, the 91 wins they’re currently sitting at on the BP projected standings page is underwhelming to say the least. To make it appear even more like PECOTA has something specifically against the Cubs, the Dodgers […]

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Cold Takes on Cubs’ PECOTA Projections

It’s nigh time we indulge in one of the late offseason’s finest traditions: the ceremonial handwringing over projections! Baseball Prospectus released its 2017 PECOTA projections, and, as always, there are some interesting quirks that deserve some cursory inspection. So, let’s get right to it. You can access the Cubs’ full projections on Baseball Prospectus’ main […]

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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 5 Preview

This piece, written by Baseball Prospectus’s Editor-in-Chief Aaron Gleeman, forms part of the main site’s comprehensive coverage of the postseason, “Playoff Prospectus”. One night after Corey Kluber and the rest of the Cleveland squad put them on the brink of elimination, the Cubs turn to their own playoff-tested ace, Jon Lester, to keep their season alive […]

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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 4 Preview

This piece, written by Baseball Prospectus’s Scooter Hotz, forms part of the main site’s comprehensive coverage of the postseason, “Playoff Prospectus”. Despite all the pregame talk of 30-40 mph wind blowing out at Wrigley for Game 3, runs were in short supply Friday night on the north side of Chicago. The only run of the […]

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Boom or Bust? Evaluating Individual Upside and Downside, Pt. II

Earlier this week, my colleague Isaac Bennett dug deep into the rabbit-hole of the widely ranging PECOTA projection numbers for Cubs hitters. Fortunately, I was able to partner with Isaac on this PECOTA rabbit-hole adventure, so today, and without further ado, I bring to you the “what ifs” and the “maybes” of the Cubs’ starting pitching staff. […]

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Power, PECOTA, and the 2016 Cubs

One of the coolest benefits of writing for Baseball Prospectus—and there are a few, hashtag humblebrag—is that I get early access to the PECOTA projections, which were just released by BP last Tuesday. This allowed me the time to pore over the projected numbers for the Cubs and drool about the power potential therein. It shouldn’t […]